#数字资产市场观察 Today's big dump finally found the real trigger.

There are various versions circulating in the market. Some say that there are new actions from domestic regulatory policies – this logic is fundamentally flawed; if that were the case, there should have been a big dump over the weekend, why wait until the workday? Another even more absurd version is that Powell can’t withstand the pressure and wants to resign early. Anyone who knows a bit understands that the term of this Federal Reserve chairman ends in June next year, and he would just quit now? This is completely inconsistent with his style of doing things; the spreaders of such rumors don’t even think about basic common sense.

The truth is actually hidden in the timeline: just after seven this morning, the Bank of Japan suddenly released signals that it might raise interest rates.

How powerful is the impact of this news? The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar plummeted instantly, and the cryptocurrency market almost collapsed simultaneously. Comparing the timeline, the causal relationship could not be clearer.

The severity of the problem goes far beyond the superficial fluctuations in the market. To put it metaphorically: the entire market is like a reservoir, and for the past few years, the Bank of Japan has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, continuously pouring water into it, keeping liquidity abundant. Now, suddenly tightening the faucet, or even potentially reversing the flow to withdraw water, will inevitably lower the water level in the reservoir. This is not a simple short-term oscillation, but rather a fundamental shaking of market participants' expectations regarding long-term liquidity—another major source of funding may be facing depletion.

Now we can only hope that the United States can exert some influence to prevent the Bank of Japan from taking too aggressive actions. If liquidity continues to tighten, the market's capacity to bear is really limited.

Of course, this is just a personal judgment based on logic and timelines. Rational discussions are welcome, but don't use market rumors that can't stand up to scrutiny as evidence. After being in this circle for so long, seeing through the facts and maintaining independent thinking is the key to long-term survival.

$ETH