The crypto market over in Eastern Europe has recently made a big move - the Central Bank has given the green light for ETF futures funds to go live for trading. It sounds quite legitimate, but upon closer inspection, the waters are quite deep.

Let's start with a number: local citizens hold encryption assets worth $12.4 billion. But how much is the newly launched ETF fund? $27 million. What's worse is that major investors may account for more than half of this scale. The money from retail investors is actually scattered and can hardly support the market. Once the market fluctuates dramatically, those large funds can withdraw at any time, leaving small investors to watch liquidity evaporate.

To delve deeper, where is most of that 12.4 billion dollars hidden? In overseas wallets and decentralized trading platforms. Here's the problem - Western regulatory agencies have already blacklisted many addresses. If on-chain monitoring truly takes effect in the future, these assets might be directly locked. The Central Bank claims there is no systemic risk, but if everyone suddenly decides to withdraw collectively, can the domestic exchanges' ETFs withstand it? I think it's doubtful.

Some say that switching to a DEX is a solution? Theoretically, it is a way, but in reality, the trading volume of DEX only accounts for 10%-15% of centralized platforms, and it heavily relies on public chains like Ethereum. If there is a technical sanction, DEX would also be in trouble. What’s even more awkward is that if the local area doesn’t have its own public chain and relies entirely on external technology for support, what does that mean? Handing over the lifeline to others.

In simple terms, this is an experiment to survive in the cracks: ordinary people want to use encryption to fight against financial sanctions, regulators are testing international limits with compliant products, and tech enthusiasts are hoping that DEX can bypass centralized risks. But this game is too fragile – sanctions can escalate at any time, technology can be cut off at any time, and market sentiment can collapse at any moment.

If you are considering getting involved with related products, you must weigh carefully: high volatility + low liquidity is no joke. For regulators, the real challenge is not controlling risk, but finding a way for the public to preserve value amidst the risks. After all, the funds are sitting there; they need a place to go.