#ETH走势分析 Let's start with the conclusion: This bearish belt hold of ETH today has buried all those who chased the price based on previous advocates. However, looking at this wave of operations can actually present an opportunity.

What can be read from the K-line pattern? The breakthrough at 3000 is just a trap—BOLL's upper track is stuck at 3114, and it just can't go up. MA7 and MA30 were supposed to cross down a few days ago, and the MACD's green bars are even more aggressive, starting to expand three days in advance. Isn't this clearly pointing to a drop?

There are several painful lessons to remember:

Don't get overly excited if the resistance level isn't stable. At critical points like 3000, it must maintain above that level with significant volume for more than three days to count; otherwise, it's just a false move. Technical indicators should be looked at in conjunction. Just looking at the price is meaningless; if two out of the three indicators—MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands—turn bad, it's time to reduce your position, don't fantasize that it will rise back again; news is just an auxiliary tool. Recently, those so-called positive news are likely just smokescreens released by the main force while selling. The real trend is already indicated by the technical charts in advance.

How to proceed from here? In the short term, look at the support line of 2700 (position of the BOLL lower track), but don't rush to bottom fish. The downward momentum of this wave has not been fully released: the MACD's DIF has reached -50, and the DEA is also hovering around -30. At least wait for the green bars to start to shrink and the price to regain the 2850 level (current position of MA7) before there is room for tentative positions.

In the medium term, it is clearer: as long as 3000 cannot truly hold, $ETH will likely consolidate between 2700 and 2950 for about a week. In this range, do not chase the price or sell; it is wise to wait for technical indicators to confirm a turning signal before taking action.

My trading logic is very simple - I don't guess tops and bottoms, I only follow signals. If a clear stop-loss signal appears around 2750, then that would be a worthwhile entry opportunity. Right now? Waiting is the best strategy.