#美SEC推动加密创新监管 ETH has been a bit tangled in its recent trend. The price has been fluctuating between $2,900 and $3,000, and last week it pulled back with the market, failing to hold the psychological barrier of $3,000. This fall directly triggered nearly $484M in long positions getting liquidated, effectively pulling back the gains from early 2025.

From a technical perspective, the RSI has dropped to around 34, indicating that it is clearly oversold. Although the MACD is still in negative territory, there are signs of it turning upwards, and the lower Bollinger Band has also been touched. These signals usually imply a potential short-term rebound, but the overall momentum remains weak. Market sentiment is also not very optimistic, with the Fear & Greed index at only 28, and green days accounting for 47% over the past month, with a volatility of 10.27%.

Key levels to watch: $2,800-$2,900 is an important support, and if it is lost, it may head straight for the logarithmic channel bottom at $2,600 or even $2,200. Looking up, $3,300-$3,400 is a clear resistance. A bear flag pattern has formed, but the oversold condition may also trigger a V-shaped reversal.

On December 3rd, there will be a Fusaka upgrade worth paying attention to. This upgrade mainly optimizes L2 efficiency and scalability. Historically, after the similar Dencun upgrade, ETH had once surged over 60%. If this time can replicate that script, a rebound to $3,300 in mid-December is not a big problem, and by the end of the month, it may even touch $3,700-$4,000. If ETF funds continue to flow in and L2 adoption rates increase, $4,200 to $5,500 is also possible.

Of course, the risks need to be made clear. If $2,800 can't hold, the probability of pulling back to $2,500 becomes significant. Currently, the risk of liquidation with leverage is still quite high, and the correlation with BTC is too strong; when BTC falls, ETH basically falls as well. There are also variables on the regulatory side, such as the SEC's unclear stance on staking ETFs.

There are also many favorable factors: Fusaka will lower transaction fees, promoting the tokenization of dApps and RWAs; whales are hoarding, exchange reserves are at a 5-year low, and circulating supply is shrinking; institutional demand remains strong. Some in the community feel that we are in a "stablecoin mode," oscillating around $3,300, but there are strong calls for a rebound from the oversold condition, and market predictions show that long positions dominate.

Overall, the short-term fluctuation leans upward, and the $3,000 defense line is crucial. Long-term holders can treat the current low point as an opportunity to increase their positions, while short-term traders are advised to wait until the Fusaka upgrade is implemented before entering the market. Remember to DYOR, as the market is highly volatile; this is not investment advice.