Thanksgiving after the crypto world cools down: Asia's chain of failures hits BTC, why can't the relaxation of liquidity save the situation?

【Chain News】The Thanksgiving holiday has just passed, and the crypto world is hit with a heavy blow—BTC has plummeted directly from a sideways state, and behind this wave of dumping lies a string of Asian chain reactions.

First, let's look at Japan: the central bank governor suddenly took a hard stance, and the market immediately erupted. The yield on two-year government bonds broke 1% directly, and the probability of a rate hike on December 19 soared to 76%. Now looking at China's PMI data, non-manufacturing activity has fallen into contraction territory for the first time in three years, putting a question mark over the growth expectations for the entire region. After these two punches, the previously hot “global monetary easing” narrative has started to raise doubts.

What adds insult to injury is the CEO of Strategy's outrageous statement—saying that if the stock price falls below its net value, they might sell coins to recover losses. As soon as this was said, the market panicked directly, and what everyone fears more is that this company will be kicked out of the main index, which would be a real disaster.

But the contradictory part has arrived: quantitative tightening officially concluded today, and the Kalshi platform shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has climbed to 87%. The odds of Kevin Hassett, who supports the crypto world, becoming the chairman of the Federal Reserve have also risen to 66%. Spot ETF funds have turned positive again, and the technical outlook looks quite good.

But the price just doesn't cooperate with the script. After rebounding 15% from the low of 81,000 dollars, this pullback was actually expected. The most pressing question now is: can BTC hold the bottom of that previous pit with the increasingly timid sentiment?

The answer depends on two points: how much the faucet is turned on in the U.S. and what kind of tricks Strategy will come up with. This morning's plummet has once again proven that BTC reacts to changes in liquidity at an astonishing speed. The U.S. is opening the floodgates, while Asia is facing headwinds, and the trend in the next few days will basically determine whether this year can close with a profit.