On the first day of December, BTC experienced a high platform plummet, and the rise that was hard to accumulate last week evaporated almost entirely within a few hours.

What is behind this wave of plummet? The Governor of the Bank of Japan suddenly adopts a hawkish stance, and the market begins to bet that interest rate hikes are coming. U.S. stock futures fell in response, and the crypto market naturally could not escape being affected.

It is important to know that once the Japanese yen truly raises interest rates, the classic "borrow yen to buy dollars" arbitrage strategy may not work anymore. Global liquidity will inevitably tighten. From a technical perspective, the monthly chart failed to break through that key defense line at the end of November, and coupled with the fact that US market makers collectively took a holiday last week, the market was as thin as paper; a few sell orders could easily create a big pit in the price.

December was originally expected to be the last discussion window for interest rate cuts this year. However, from this month until February next year, it is likely to enter a "rate cut hiatus"—which means there will be no interest rate cut expectations to speculate on for at least the next two months. If there are no new hotspots to attract investment during this period, is it difficult for the market to continue to warm up?

This week, there are several data points worth monitoring: Wednesday's ADP non-farm employment data (the worse it looks, the better it is for interest rate cut expectations), Friday's PCE price index influence has diminished, and there is also PMI data. However, ultimately, it all comes down to what Powell has to say.