Bitcoin Surge Isn't the Start of a New ATH Run, Analyst Warns

Source: Coindoo Original Title: Bitcoin Surge Isn’t the Start of a New ATH Run, Analyst Warns Original Link: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-surge-isnt-the-start-of-a-new-ath-run-analyst-warns/ Bitcoin’s recent rebound has brought optimism back into the market, but several well-followed analysts warn that traders may be misreading the cycle.

Key Takeaways

• Colin Talks Crypto sees only a 20% chance of Bitcoin jumping straight to new all-time highs from here.
• His base case: rally to $100K–$115K, then a multi-month correction before the next major phase of the cycle.
• Van de Poppe and Ali also argue cycle-top conditions are not present, with indicators and sentiment still far from peak levels.

Despite a strong recovery, current data does not indicate that Bitcoin has reached its final top — and analysts expect more volatility before the eventual peak.

Immediate new all-time highs are not the base case

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto published a new 12-month roadmap and cautioned against expecting Bitcoin to blast directly to fresh record levels. He assigned only a 20% probability to that scenario.

In his model, Bitcoin is more likely to climb into the $100,000–$115,000 range first, followed by a meaningful correction. That correction, he says, could take one of two forms: a shorter 6–8-month retracement before the next leg up, or a longer, more traditional bear-market phase lasting around a year. Either way, he stressed that an immediate ATH breakout from current prices should not be treated as the default expectation.

Market looks nothing like a cycle top

Michael van de Poppe also challenged the idea that Bitcoin has peaked. He pointed to the absence of typical top-of-cycle signals — retail euphoria, headline-driven speculation and extreme pricing. He described today’s conditions as unusually quiet and similar to late 2019 and early 2023, which turned out to be some of the best accumulation windows of the previous cycle.

According to him, the market is not overheated but rather “empty,” and historically, these subdued periods have preceded aggressive upside.

On-chain metrics still support a recovery phase

On-chain researcher Ali identified an additional signal that aligns with these viewpoints. He highlighted the on-chain trader loss margin, which has historically bottomed below --37% during deep capitulation phases before major reversals. The metric currently sits at --20%, signalling pain in the market but not the kind of exhaustion that typically ends a bull cycle.

This suggests that the current phase is still corrective, rather than terminal.

Even though Bitcoin regained the $91,000 level, analysts emphasize that retail participation remains low and speculative demand has not returned. Social sentiment, liquidity inflows and meme-token activity — all key markers of peak emotional markets — remain flat.

The combination of quiet sentiment, incomplete capitulation metrics and the likelihood of one more rally before a deeper correction forms the backbone of the current analysis shared across the market.