#数字资产市场观察 tonight could be very exciting - four forces are stirring the market at the same time, will Powell's speech be the catalyst?

Let’s start with the most dramatic scene: the interest rate cut expectations this week were like a roller coaster. Last week, the market was betting on an 80% chance of a rate cut, and ETH jumped directly from 2800 to nearly 3100. As a result, this morning a rumor that "Powell might resign due to the new chairman candidate" suddenly caused an uproar, panic spread instantly, and short-term fluctuations surged. Can you feel the rhythm? Isn’t it a bit surreal?

What’s worse is that the tariff policy is still hanging in the air. The market is waiting for when that liquidity will actually come in – once it is officially implemented in December, crypto assets are likely to welcome a new catalyst. But the problem is, no one can say for sure what the specific timeline is.

The personnel changes at the Federal Reserve are becoming clearer. Trump is likely to officially announce a new chair candidate before Christmas, with the popular candidate Hassett being highly aligned with him on interest rate cuts. If there really is a change, will the pace of easing policy accelerate? This would theoretically be a long-term positive for $BTC and $ETH.

But there is a pitfall to be aware of: the ETH hard fork upgrade is coming the day after tomorrow. In such "fully priced" technical events, what we fear the most is that good news turns into bad news in an instant. The market has already digested the expectations in advance; will it take the opportunity to pull back and offload?

To be honest, the current market liquidity is ridiculously poor, even worse than when ETH dropped to $1000. Poor liquidity + amplified volatility, in such an environment, chasing highs and cutting losses is particularly dangerous. Powell's speech tonight will definitely have a short-term impact, but the Federal Reserve has long prepared backup plans; his personal stay or departure actually won't change the overall direction.

The focus should still be on the signals of the substantial implementation of policies, rather than the short-term noise of market sentiment.