Coffee futures are a bit interesting today — Arabica coffee rose by 2%, mainly due to alarming drought conditions in Brazil. Last week, the rainfall in Brazil's largest coffee-producing region, Minas Gerais, was only 26.4 mm, which is just 49% of the historical average. Additionally, the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee imposed by the United States was lifted by Trump, but this led to a big dump in U.S. coffee inventories — ICE Arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,000 bags, and Robusta inventories also hit a new low in 4.5 months. Interestingly, U.S. coffee imports from Brazil from August to October dropped by 52% compared to the same period last year because buyers are avoiding tariffs. In contrast, Vietnam's output is rising, with production expected to reach a 4-year high of 17.6 million bags in the 2025/26 season. Global coffee exports are actually contracting, with the International Coffee Organization reporting a 0.3% decline in exports to 139 million bags for this marketing year. With supply chain tensions and weather risks, coffee prices still have short-term support.