#数字货币市场回升 Recently, several pieces of news in the market have come together, and the more I look at them, the more interesting they become.

Let's start with the macro perspective — CME data shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has soared to 87.4%. Even more explosive is the odds of Hassett taking over as Fed chairman, which jumped from 55% to 78% within a week. This pace clearly signals a policy shift.

The industry side is also not at ease. Sony Bank suddenly announced that it will launch a US dollar stablecoin in the US market in 2026, mainly targeting the gaming and anime ecosystem. Meanwhile, this morning, USDC Treasury directly destroyed 60 million USDC on the Ethereum chain. The stablecoin sector has much more complex undercurrents than it appears on the surface.

Looking at the market performance in November again - to be honest, it was indeed a bit bleak. Bitcoin's return rate was -17.67%, which is the second lowest November performance in history; Ethereum at -22.38% wasn't much better. Historically, November should have been a peak month, but this year's trend is indeed unusual.

**The most worth discussing is still the matter of USDT.**

Each USDT is indeed backed by 1.037 US dollars in assets, but the issue is that out of this 1.037 US dollars, 0.15 US dollars are in BTC and gold. If the prices of BTC or gold experience a significant pullback, theoretically, the asset side could fall below the liability line. In other words, for every USDT that Tether issues, they are benefiting from US Treasury interest while also having the holders of the currency unknowingly bear a market risk exposure of 0.15 US dollars.

However, this concern may be a bit overstated—Tether's dividend scale over the past 9 months has been around $10 billion, and industry insiders speculate that it has done "off-balance-sheet treatment" for $20-30 billion of equity. The actual safety cushion may be much thicker than the balance sheet figures.

But the core contradiction still lies in: USDT is already a system-level stablecoin. At this scale, is it more important to pursue a 100% fully-backed USD reserve, or is it more reasonable to continue using user funds for directional allocation? This is a question worth discussing.

What do you think of this operation?

After the expectation of interest rate cuts materializes, can the crypto market really welcome a recovery? Will this round of FUD surrounding USDT affect your usage habits? Will the entry of traditional giants like Sony reshape the competitive landscape of stablecoins?

Welcome to share your views in the comments section.

⚠️ Market fluctuations are severe, and all decisions should be based on personal independent judgment. The above information is for reference only; please refer to official announcements for specifics. $GIGGLE