#数字货币市场回升 Recently, in the crypto world, this big dump has led many people to directly blame the Bank of Japan.

Indeed, the Bank of Japan has been active recently, sending one hawkish signal after another, and the market is betting on a formal interest rate hike in December or January next year—this is a historic turning point that ends thirty years of negative interest rates. The yen exchange rate and short-term government bond yields have risen in response, seeming like a direct catalyst.

But wait, what really triggered this round of sell-off was not the interest rate hike itself.

The core logic is that the global funding chain for yen arbitrage trading is breaking.

What have global institutions and large players been doing in the past decade? Borrowing yen at low costs, then flipping into high-return assets like US stocks, gold, BTC, ETH, and SOL. The premise of this play is that the yen maintains low interest rates or even negative rates, making borrowing almost cost-free. However, once the yen is expected to appreciate, borrowing costs soar, and institutions must close their positions to repay the loans – and the first assets they sell are those with the best liquidity and most volatility.

BTC and ETH are naturally at the forefront. The crypto market operates 24/7, and the leverage is frighteningly high, causing falls that are even more severe than those in the US tech sector.

However, speaking of which —

This round of selling seems more like a technical adjustment rather than a systemic collapse.

Why do you say that? Japan's interest rate hike space is actually quite limited, and it will still maintain a moderate tone in the long term; the real pricing power in the crypto world is still dominated by the United States, and the Federal Reserve's future policy path is to lower interest rates, not to raise them; from a liquidity perspective, the medium-term trend is still loose, and the underlying logic of the bull market has not been damaged.

The structural support level for BTC is still there, and this wave of decline is more of an emotional sell-off. In the short term, there may still be a panic selling pressure of 3%-5%, but it does not indicate a trend reversal.

So the conclusion is very clear:

Chasing the fall and cutting losses now is likely to be cutting at the panic bottom.

The market provides a window for accumulation at low levels, not a signal to sell off and escape. At least wait for a rebound and recovery before making decisions; don't let panic dictate your actions.