#美联储恢复降息进程 To be honest, the decision-makers at the Fed themselves might not be sure right now - whether the interest rates will be lowered or not.

You can tell from the data. The 2-year Treasury yield should have fallen to 3.4 following the 50 basis points rate cut, but instead, it soared to 3.6. What's the difference from not cutting at all? Faced with such a bizarre trend, how could the central bank dare to act lightly?

The question arises: the financing costs for businesses and governments haven’t come down at all. What to do about this situation? Interestingly, Trump and the Fed have reached a rare consensus this time, preparing to take action in the stock and crypto markets. The strategy is straightforward—through severe fluctuations of three points within a day, specifically targeting those high-leverage players while allowing the stock market to slowly decline.

Every year's old routine: creating the illusion of liquidity depletion. But recently, the 2-year yield has started to decline again, indicating that funds have begun to bottom out U.S. Treasuries. The source of this money, you know.

The US dollar index is also weakening. Both of these signals point in the same direction - as interest rates gradually return to a reasonable range, the market's confidence in the rate cut in December has risen again.

I have a simple and straightforward judgment criterion: keep an eye on whether the 2-year Treasury yield can fall back to 3.4. If it can't fall back, the Fed will most likely remain inactive, and the stock market will continue to be under pressure. The good news is that we are now very close to this threshold.