#美SEC推动加密创新监管 The crypto market in December is at the intersection of several key nodes.

The most worth paying attention to is still the probability of interest rate cuts. Last week, this number soared from less than 45% to 80%, directly driving ETH from $2800 to nearly $3100. However, this morning, due to some rumors—saying that a senior central bank official might announce their resignation today—the market has started to become nervous again. After all, the next chairman candidates are already on the table, and this kind of uncertainty is most likely to trigger short-term fluctuations.

Another unresolved issue is the tariff dividend policy. There were rumors about it last month, but it hasn't been implemented yet. If it can be finalized in December, it would be equivalent to injecting a significant amount of liquidity into the market, which is something that cannot be overlooked.

Interestingly, there may be new nominations for the central bank governor before Christmas. The leading candidate, Hassett, is already inclined to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts, aligning with the current government's ideas. This is a long-term positive for the crypto market.

On the technical level, ETH will undergo a hard fork upgrade the day after tomorrow. However, expectations may have already been fully priced in, and at such times, one should be wary of the old routine of "good news leading to bad news."

Tonight's speech will be a short-term variable, but to be honest, the market liquidity is still worse than when ETH was over a thousand dollars. No matter how much the policy side stirs things up, the core issue is whether the funds are willing to enter the market.