Coffee futures are seeing a strong rise today: Arabica March contracts are up 0.57%, while Robusta January contracts have surged 2.37%, reaching a two-week high.

There are two forces behind it: the weakening of the dollar boosts Arabica, but the real dark horse is Robusta—Vietnam's largest coffee-producing region, Dak Lak, has been hit by heavy rains, causing harvest delays along with subsequent rain alerts, directly stimulating prices.

Even more shocking is the shrinkage of inventory: ICE Arabica inventory has fallen to a 1.75-year low (396,500 bags), and Robusta inventory has dropped to a 4-month low. The reason is quite painful— the U.S. has imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, leading importers to frantically cut orders. From August to October, U.S. imports of coffee from Brazil plummeted by 52% year-on-year.

But there is also pressure: Brazil is expected to increase production by 29% in the 2026/27 season, and Vietnam's production in 2025/26 may reach a four-year high of 17.6 million tons, leading to a generally loose global supply situation.

Currently, weather + tariffs + tight inventory are the three driving forces supporting prices, but the expected increase on the supply side remains a long-term pressure.