Recently asked a lot: is it still a bull run, or have we already entered a bear market?

To be honest, when I first got into the scene in 2017, I didn't believe in any of that nonsense about a four-year cycle at all. I thought it was just old-timers making empty promises.

It wasn't until I saw Bitcoin plummet from 126,000 to 94,000, with altcoins being cut in half and some dropping to zero by 90%, that I truly understood a principle —

Bull and bear markets are not just words; they are created by the market with real money.

At the beginning of the month, when BTC was still hovering around 110,000, those junk coins could multiply five or ten times a day, it felt like déjà vu. The last time I saw such madness was at the tail end of the bull run in 2021, with all sorts of monsters flying around and corpses everywhere.

At that time, I mentioned a few risk warnings, and some people criticized me for being bearish, saying that the bull run had just begun.

What now? The market has directly liquidated $19 billion in leveraged positions, and the annual gain has instantly returned to zero.

The recent crash was actually not sudden. The script was already written on the day everyone was frantically FOMOing.

And don't forget, this year happens to be the 18th month after the halving—looking back at historical data, every cycle has turned at this point.

Bitcoin at least has institutional funds to support it, but what about altcoins? When no one is buying, they can drop harder than anyone.

The technical aspect goes without saying. The 200-day moving average of three years has been breached, and the 365-day moving average can't hold either. Now everyone is focused on the support level of 72,000.

With the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts collapsing, several officials have made hawkish remarks in succession, and the government shutdown has led to tightened liquidity...

To be honest, this year's Christmas market is mostly cooled off.

What do you think about the end of the year?

My judgment is very simple: a fluctuation in the range of 80,000 to 90,000. If it falls below 80,000, then a periodic bear market may really be coming.

But I'm not that pessimistic.

The ETF can still see a net inflow of 253 million US dollars in a single day, which indicates that it's not that no one is buying, but rather that large funds are not in a hurry to buy the dip.

The crypto market has never been a one-sided trend. The bull run will not rise forever, and the bear market will not fall indefinitely.

All historical cycles have verified the same saying: everything will reverse when it reaches its extreme.

The position we are currently in may be the end of this cycle and the beginning of the next one.

Instead of getting caught up in whether it's a bull or bear market, it's better to calm down: keep some cash, watch for the right direction, and don't rush to go all in.

The real opportunity does not appear when everyone is celebrating, but quietly arrives when everyone is numb and desperate.

In this market, patience is more valuable than any rise or fall.