Recently, I have observed a phenomenon - more and more people are keen on making medium to long term holdings. To be honest, the risks of this approach are severely underestimated.
Why do you say that? Once the price breaks through the key support level you set, the losses are often of a large magnitude. Unless you happen to buy at the bottom or successfully sell at the top, if you misjudge the direction, holding the position is just burning money. What's worse is that in this situation, basically everyone loses, and the chance of turning things around is very slim.
Some people say that Bitcoin could rise to 150,000? I think the possibility is not small. But on the other hand, if it falls below a key level, rushing down to 140,000 or even lower is not without precedent. And then there's the theory of a four-year cycle; who can guarantee that the patterns will never change? When a deep bear market comes, the number of people who can withstand it is few and far between.
I also make long term layouts myself, but I have a strict rule - the stop-loss point must be set at key technical levels. To be honest, I prefer trend-based operations, capturing a wave of market movement repeatedly, resulting in more considerable profit potential. Some people judge based on daily resistance levels, thinking that after a breakout, the next target will directly surge by $15,000 - can you really withstand such volatility?
My habit is to break down the market into segments and act accordingly, never holding on until the end. When a level is broken, I decisively cut losses to preserve my capital for the next opportunity.
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Layer3Dreamer
· 8h ago
theoretically speaking, if we model hodling as a state verification problem across market cycles... the author's basically describing recursive risk accumulation without proper L2-style exit liquidity lmao. the 4-year cycle thing reminds me of vitalik's work on blockchain trilemma — you can't have security AND predictability AND decentralization all at once, and market cycles work the same way ngl
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SerumSqueezer
· 8h ago
You speak the truth; holding a losing position is indeed a life-and-death situation, and one broken level can lead to an explosion.
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Medium to long term looks comfortable, but in reality, it’s the biggest killer of psychological accounts. I’ve seen too many people unwilling to set a stop loss and end up losing everything.
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Whether it's 150,000 or 140,000, I can't predict it, but having a stop loss is the skill to survive.
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I also use the strategy of taking segments to trade; it’s much more enjoyable than holding a losing position. Breaking a level and leaving without lingering is the way to survive.
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The theory of cycles sounds impressive, but in fact, no one can say when the next cycle will come. It's still reliable to have that bit of capital in hand.
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I've seen too many people with a Full Position in long-term holdings, and as a result, one black swan leads to a game over. Setting a stop loss is really not an option.
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SignatureCollector
· 8h ago
You are right, holding a long-term position is really a psychological battle, just a slight fluctuation and you start questioning your life.
Setting stop loss at technical levels is brilliant, saving many people's capital.
I can't control whether it's 150,000 or 140,000; anyway, I am making repeated trades with a small position, frequent take profit is much more comfortable.
The most annoying part of holding a losing position is that the capital can't come back; rather than betting on cycles, it's better to earn segment by segment.
I agree, technical levels are really life-and-death lines; if it breaks, just run, there's nothing to be ashamed of.
This mindset is the foundation for making money; it's not about how long you can hold on, but how long you can survive.
Recently, I have observed a phenomenon - more and more people are keen on making medium to long term holdings. To be honest, the risks of this approach are severely underestimated.
Why do you say that? Once the price breaks through the key support level you set, the losses are often of a large magnitude. Unless you happen to buy at the bottom or successfully sell at the top, if you misjudge the direction, holding the position is just burning money. What's worse is that in this situation, basically everyone loses, and the chance of turning things around is very slim.
Some people say that Bitcoin could rise to 150,000? I think the possibility is not small. But on the other hand, if it falls below a key level, rushing down to 140,000 or even lower is not without precedent. And then there's the theory of a four-year cycle; who can guarantee that the patterns will never change? When a deep bear market comes, the number of people who can withstand it is few and far between.
I also make long term layouts myself, but I have a strict rule - the stop-loss point must be set at key technical levels. To be honest, I prefer trend-based operations, capturing a wave of market movement repeatedly, resulting in more considerable profit potential. Some people judge based on daily resistance levels, thinking that after a breakout, the next target will directly surge by $15,000 - can you really withstand such volatility?
My habit is to break down the market into segments and act accordingly, never holding on until the end. When a level is broken, I decisively cut losses to preserve my capital for the next opportunity.