A certain investment bank predicts that the Fed will lower interest rates twice again next year, and bond yields are expected to continue to decline.

OnChainDetective

2025-12-01 07:22:17

[比推] A European investment bank's interest rate strategy team recently made an interesting judgment - the upcoming economic data will likely remain the same: the US economy is holding up, inflation is sticky and won't come down easily, and there are slight signs of weakness in the labor market.

However, they bet that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December, there will be two more cuts in 2025. More importantly, the expectation for the bond market: by the end of 2026, the yield on two-year government bonds may slide to around 3.2%, while the ten-year yield will drop to about 3.75%.

The logic behind this prediction is quite clear - even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the pace will be very restrained, as inflation has not yet completely cooled off. For the cryptocurrency market, this expectation of moderate easing serves as a decent background noise.

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SeasonedInvestor

· 8h ago

Moderate easing? Sounds nice, but isn't the rate cut just too small, making it hard to cure the stubborn inflation? It's another game of guessing the Fed's thoughts; what can we expect from two rate cuts in 2025? It's better for bond yields to go down than to stay high, at least it's somewhat favourable for on-chain lending, right? Restrained rate cuts... why do I feel like the Fed is playing with fire? Bitcoin doesn't care about these things. Just wait and see, economic data speaks for itself; these investment banks are just talking on paper.

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BearMarketHustler

· 8h ago

Moderate easing? Ha, sounds good, but is this "restrained" rate cut really that friendly to the crypto world? I have my doubts. --- Inflation is stubborn, and the Fed has to take it slowly with rate cuts. How are we supposed to make money... --- Falling bond yields are favourable for traditional assets, but we need to see how Bitcoin moves; that’s the key. --- It's not even 2026 yet, and there are so many variables in between. How much can we trust the predictions from the investment banks? --- Two rate cuts sound moderate, but is that enough to pump the coin prices? It still depends on the actual market conditions. --- The U.S. economy can "hold up", but inflation isn't coming down. This combination is a bit tricky... --- Well, the background noise of the crypto market, just afraid in the end it’s still an illusion.

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