#数字货币市场回升 Is the Fed really going to loosen up this time? Don't celebrate too early.

On December 1, the announcement of the end of the quantitative tightening policy was made, but Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, poured cold water on it: Don't be fooled by the official announcement, the Fed's balance sheet may not really start to improve until early 2026. The reason is simple – there is a lag in the settlement of government bonds. Just look back at the old accounts from 2019, and you'll see that even after the policy was halted that year, the numbers continued to decline for several months 📊.

What's even more interesting is the horse race for the next Fed chair. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett has recently gained momentum that is quite alarming: his odds on the prediction platform Kalshi surged from 55% to 78% in just a week, while on Polymarket it also climbed to 71%, leaving other candidates far behind.

The question arises: If the balance sheet won't truly ease until 2026, will the liquidity expectations during this more than a year in between affect market trends? If Hassett takes office, what changes will his attitude towards crypto regulation and monetary policy bring?

The combination of these two variables will have a significant impact on next year's investment layout. The price trends of mainstream currencies like $ETH and $BNB may need to be reassessed.