Last week I helped my fren review his account and saw that on the day last year when SOL surged to 210 dollars, he opened a full position with leverage and got liquidated 2.8 million in three days.

Only after reviewing his trading records did he realize that the MACD energy bars in the K-line chart had already shrunk - the red bars were getting shorter, like a candle burning down to the end, but all he could think about was "just wait a little longer to take profit," completely missing this signal.

This reminds me of the survival logic I realized after losing 1.5 million back in the day: a top divergence is not metaphysics; it essentially means that funds are retreating in advance.

Last year when ETH rose to 4200 dollars, the price hit new highs every day, and the market sentiment was through the roof. I was watching the red bars of the MACD, which went from thick to thin, and I forcibly liquidated my position at 2 AM - the next day it directly dropped below 3600. A few old friends in the group complained to me, saying they were reluctant to sell, and as a result, they got liquidated.

On the contrary, a bullish divergence is a signal to buy at a discount.

This year when APT dropped to $8, the entire network was criticizing it as "trash imitation." I went to check the weekly chart and found that the price hit a new low, but the green energy bars were half as short as the last time it dropped. Looking at the on-chain data, there is a giant whale address that is steadily buying $5 million worth of assets every day.

I built my position in three batches, adding each time it drops by 5%—just like the mindset of not daring to stock up too much when the supermarket has a sale. As a result, APT rose back to 18 dollars, not only recouping my losses but also making an extra profit.

Another pit to avoid: don't rush in just because you see a golden cross; that's just a "test move".

The last time the PEPE daily golden cross appeared, I saw that a certain exchange's hot wallet moved in and out 20 million USDT, with funds coming in and then running away, like testing the water temperature. Sure enough, three days later, it dropped by 20%. A truly reliable opportunity requires waiting for a second golden cross—especially when both the 30-minute and 4-hour lines cross up simultaneously, and the trading volume suddenly explodes; only then does the probability of success increase.

To be honest at the end: MACD is not a fortune-telling tool, but a mirror to observe the direction of funds.

The profits in my account right now are not from betting on a big win, but from controlling my actions every time I see something off with the energy bars. I never exceed 5% for my first position, just like keeping the trial and error cost always within an acceptable range.

The ones who survive in the crypto world are not always the boldest, but those who can read the signals and know when to retreat.

I have stumbled before, now sharing my experience - the road is underfoot, will you follow?