The atmosphere of the Fed meeting in December is a bit strange.

Internal tearing, data interruptions, and an imminent leadership change—these three events collided, creating one of the most surreal decision-making scenes in recent years. The market now feels like a roller coaster; one moment it's speculating on whether there will be an interest rate cut, and the next moment it's thrown into disarray by a statement from an official.

First, let's talk about internal differences. A few days ago, New York Fed's Williams suddenly sent a dovish signal, saying "there is room for adjustment in the short term." As soon as this statement was made, the expectation of interest rate cuts jumped from 30% to 87.4%. But don't get too excited—there are basically two factions within the Fed now, and neither can convince the other.

The doves are getting anxious. Board member Milan directly stated: "We must significantly cut interest rates!" Her logic is simple - borrowing money is too expensive now, the unemployment rate is rising, and the economy is being choked. How to cut? She proposed to directly implement a few rounds of 50 basis point cuts to quickly bring the interest rates down to neutral levels. Waller is also on this side, with the core demand being to protect employment.

What about the hawks? They are completely unyielding. They are fixated on the inflation numbers and feel that lowering interest rates now would lay a trap for the future. Among the FOMC members with voting rights this year, this group insists on holding steady.

What's worse is that the government shutdown has completely wiped out key economic data. The Fed is essentially walking a tightrope blindfolded during this meeting—without data support, it's purely based on "feelings" to make decisions.

With Trump soon to officially announce the new chairman candidate, it remains a question of how long the current leadership can maintain its discourse power. The three forces are intertwined, creating a high level of suspense for this meeting.