#数字货币市场回升 I have seen too many people rise and fall in the crypto market, and a story from an old player is worth listening to. Eight years ago, he got on board with 5k, and now his account balance has risen to 25 million. Sounds like a rags-to-riches myth? In reality, the pitfalls he experienced along the way could discourage an ordinary person ten times.

At first, he was also a typical novice, unable to distinguish between mainstream and altcoins. He rushed in when he saw Dogecoin, and ended up getting caught in the LUNA crash, watching tens of thousands shrink to just a few hundred. That loss made him realize completely: in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money.

Later, he explored a set of capital management rules. If you have 100k in savings, you should only take out a maximum of 20k to play; if you earn 8k a month, your monthly investment should not exceed 800. He is used to dividing his positions into three parts: 30% allocated to mainstream cryptocurrencies for long-term holding, half of the funds for swing trading, and the remaining 20% specifically reserved for bottom fishing—buying when the market drops by 15%, adding more when it drops to 30%, and making the last purchase when it falls below 50%, never shooting all the bullets at once. The stop-loss line is also strictly set; for short-term operations, if it breaks the 5-day moving average, he exits, and for medium-term holdings, if it falls below the 20-day line, he liquidates the position completely.

He has an iron rule: never go against the trend. Buying the dip in a downtrend is basically equivalent to giving away money; you have to wait until the reversal signal is clear before taking action. In a rising market, it is actually more stable to position during a pullback. Trading volume is the indicator he values the most; a low-level breakout with volume is a real opportunity, while that kind of volume-less rise is mostly a trap to lure in buyers.

In technical analysis, he only focuses on three things: the 15-minute candlestick chart to find specific entry and exit points, the daily MACD to determine the overall direction, and the weekly Bollinger Bands to observe support and resistance. When these three indicators give signals simultaneously, combined with increased trading volume, the success rate can be significantly higher.

When doing short-term trading, he has three strict rules: only engage with popular varieties that have trading volume, withdraw after making 15%, and cut losses after a 5% loss. He only looks at 1 to 3 minute charts, goes long when the average price line is going up, goes short when it's going down, and watches from the sidelines during sideways fluctuations.

In terms of tools, he has been using TradingView for chart analysis for many years, Jinshi Data to track policy news, Glassnode to monitor whale movements, and TokenSniffer to filter suspicious projects. These are essentials to check every day.

The most honest statement: there is no secret to guaranteed profits in this market. Being able to hold on until now relies on strict discipline, not luck. When your understanding doesn't keep up, no matter how much capital you have, it's all gambling.