#十二月行情展望 BTC has fallen below 90,000 again. How will the market perform in December?

The crypto market has delivered a blow to investors right at the start of December—a staggering fall of over $4,000 in Bitcoin within two hours, dropping to as low as $86,161, with a nearly 5% decline in 24 hours; Ethereum fared even worse, falling over $200 and breaching the $2,900 threshold, hitting a low of $2,813.20, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 5.5%. Other coins like Solana and BNB also followed suit, resulting in a chaotic scene across the entire market.
This wave of flash crash directly triggered a "bloodbath for the bulls": in the past 4 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $481 million, of which $462 million were long positions, equivalent to bulls being rubbed on the ground. Within 24 hours, over 198,000 people lost all their principal, and many investors woke up to find their accounts empty.
1. Why did it suddenly crash?
4 key factors hit the market panic
1. Domestic regulators sound the alarm again: The central bank, in conjunction with thirteen departments, held an "anti-fraud meeting" and clarified that virtual currency is an illegal financial activity, while stablecoins are also strictly regulated due to anti-money laundering risks. Although no new policies were issued, the "prohibitive stance" has been reinforced again, causing even more panic in an already tense market.
2. The macro environment is concerning: The Bank of Japan hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, the first since 2008; while the Federal Reserve's rate cut has yet to materialize, global funds are reluctant to rush into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are naturally affected.
3. Institutional funds have not kept up: Although there was a net inflow for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last week, compared to the $2.34 billion net outflow of the single ETF from BlackRock IBIT in November, this amount of funds is just "a drop in the bucket" and cannot support a market rebound.
4. Whales secretly sell off: The "ancient whale" of Ethereum, which entered the market in 2016 with a cost of only $203, has sold 7,000 ETH in the past month, making nearly $20 million; there are also large holders with over 1,000 BTC who are selling ETH in batches. These "old players" fleeing the market have directly dampened market sentiment.
2. Is there an opportunity hidden in the bad news? These two positive factors in December may save the situation.
Although the market is currently sluggish, there is still hope; two key positive factors may be on the way:
- The Federal Reserve ends "tapering": Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve will officially stop quantitative tightening (QT) and will no longer withdraw funds from the market. It is important to note that over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has withdrawn $2 trillion, and now the "halt" effectively means "easing" for the market, potentially leading to a gradual recovery in liquidity.
- The probability of a rate cut is as high as 87.4%: On December 10, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the current market predicts a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. If the rate cut happens, funds may flow back into the cryptocurrency market, serving as a "catalyst" for a rebound.
3. How will the end of the year unfold? 7 big shots provide clear judgments.
In the face of a "falling numb" market, investors are most concerned about: should they cut their losses now or buy the dip? In the last month of 2025, will the market hit bottom and rebound or continue in a bear market? Let’s take a look at the views of industry leaders:
1. CryptoQuant (research institution): The total supply of stablecoins has surpassed $160 billion, a record high, which serves as the market's "ammunition depot." History has shown that when stablecoins grow, Bitcoin often rises, and now that there is plenty of "bullets," a counterattack may be prepared. 2. MisterCrypto (analyst): The market has seen a "surrender-style sell-off," but big players have started to secretly open long positions. This combination of "retail panic and institutional bottom-fishing" has often been a signal for a rebound in the past, and Bitcoin may stabilize soon. 3. Arthur Hayes (co-founder of Bit): Boldly predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of the year! He believes that $80,600 is the bottom, and now that the Federal Reserve is set to end tightening and continue lowering interest rates, combined with the previous leverage liquidation that has "cleaned up" the market, the upward momentum is strong.
4. André Dragosch (Bit Researcher): The current macro environment is very similar to that during the COVID-19 pandemic. The global economy is set to accelerate growth, but the price of Bitcoin has not kept up, leaving significant room for future increases.
5. Santiment (Sentiment Platform): Ethereum may rise 7% in the short term, targeting $3200! Because the yield on stablecoins is only 4%, it indicates that the market is not overheated and there is still room for growth.
6. Ali (Crypto Analyst): Bitcoin will only rebound after traders have lost over 37%. It has only lost 20% now, so it may take a little longer.
7. Matrixport (chart analysis agency): The market is very contradictory now, with low volatility and panic sentiment fading, but prices are stuck at a key position. Macroeconomic policies and seasonal patterns point in different directions, so careful judgment is necessary.
In short, this wave of flash crash has indeed made many investors panic, especially those who have been liquidated, feeling both heartbroken and confused. However, the crypto market has always been "high risk, high reward," and panic and opportunity often coexist. The Federal Reserve's policies in December, the liquidity of stablecoins, and the movements of whales will all affect the market direction. If you are a heavily invested investor, do not blindly cut losses; if you are a friend looking to buy the dip, do not rush to enter the market, it might be better to wait for clearer signals. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money.