Bitcoin $BTC

In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted nearly 5%, trading at $86,415.88 at the time of writing.
BTC's latest drop coincides with a weakening of technical momentum and a depletion of market liquidity—this increasingly dangerous combination continues to impact short-term price movements.

Despite the lack of any news catalysts, Bitcoin plunged thousands of dollars in just a few minutes, highlighting the fragile liquidity conditions in the trading environment for most of this year. This structural liquidity issue, the report noted, often results in unusually large losses on Friday and Sunday nights in cryptocurrency movements. Bitcoin's sudden drop of thousands of dollars "without any news" has been attributed to a thin order book and record-high leverage. In such an environment, even moderate sell-offs can trigger a chain of liquidations.
This behavior is "essentially still structural," and "not a fundamental decline." Will Bitcoin plummet or rebound? Key price levels suggest significant volatility may occur in the future.

Bitcoin reaches key trend level, momentum weakens
Bitcoin continues to decline, with the daily closing price consistently below the short-term moving average. The downward trend of the 9-day moving average reflects a weakening of bullish momentum, while the decline of the 20-day moving average confirms that the overall trend has shifted towards sellers.

These situations make Bitcoin susceptible to significant intraday fluctuations—especially during periods of low liquidity—when the order book is thin and prices can move rapidly in either direction.

Despite the earlier slowdown in bearish momentum, the MACD indicator still shows structural negative values. The recent contraction of the histogram indicates that the selling pressure is only temporarily paused, rather than a sustained rebound.

Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is sliding towards oversold levels, indicating that the bearish pressure is strong enough to push the market close to a weak state, but has not yet reached the level of confirming a reversal.

In short, the technological momentum remains weak, and the market currently lacks sufficient liquidity or trend strength to absorb sudden sell-offs.

Support and resistance levels determine the recent roadmap.
The current trading price of Bitcoin is slightly above a set of key support levels, which will determine whether the market stabilizes or continues to decline.

The immediate resistance levels are at $86,845.94 and $87,498.16, overlapping with the declining short-term moving average.

Only when these areas are effectively reclaimed can the upward momentum be restored. A stronger upward trend requires a breakthrough of the next major resistance level at $94,270, which will mark a substantial attempt at the medium-term trend.

The downside is that the most important support levels for Bitcoin—located between $84,739.74, $84,250.09, and deeper at $82,389.99—now form the last line of defense against a larger pullback. The liquidity situation suggests that if another wave of leveraged liquidations occurs during a quiet weekend trading period, these support levels may be tested again.
The buying support at around $86,310 is significantly strong. If this support level is breached, the price may drop by about 0.25% before encountering the next support area. Additionally, the other smaller buying support levels around $86,337.70 and $86,434.06 are relatively weak. If all three support levels are breached, the price is likely to further decline to a deeper support area.

Selling pressure:
The sell resistance level at 86,520.37 USD constitutes short-term resistance. After breaking through this resistance level, the price will attempt to reach the secondary resistance level at 86,710.80 USD. To attempt a larger rebound, this resistance level must also be breached. The smaller sell resistance level near 86,574.12 USD may trigger rapid fluctuations, but it is unlikely to change the overall trend.

Leverage and Insufficient Liquidity: A Combination of Volatility
The analysis of the Kobeissi Letter provides crucial background information for the recent movements of Bitcoin. With the leverage in the cryptocurrency market at historically high levels, a cascade of liquidations is more easily triggered. Coupled with reduced liquidity over the weekend, even small-scale sell-offs could lead to violent sell-offs worth thousands of dollars.

These factors help explain the sudden drop in Bitcoin without a catalyst and reinforce the structural rather than fundamental characteristics of the cryptocurrency market's "bear market phase." Volatility may remain high until leverage is reset and liquidity is restored.

Trading Strategy: Long and Short Strategies at Key Price Levels
For long traders, it may be worth considering entering the support area between $84,250 and $84,739, especially when indicators show early reversal signals or when liquidity increases during periods of high trading volume. If the price strongly rebounds to $87,498, this can be seen as an entry point for an upward breakout, with a target price around $94,270.

For short positions, a drop below $84,739 will confirm the continuation of the downtrend and open the path to a drop towards $82,389. Momentum traders may also short when there is a failure to retest the 9-day or 20-day moving averages, both of which are currently serving as dynamic resistance.

Given the current macro structure—insufficient liquidity, high leverage, and weak trend signals—strict risk management is crucial for both sides of the market. #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边