#美联储恢复降息进程 Why did the market suddenly change at the end of the year? The institutional response strategies behind this round of severe Fluctuation.

The so-called Christmas rally has yet to be seen, but the crypto market has already given everyone a lesson. The daily Fluctuation of mainstream cryptocurrencies has broken into double digits, and various concept coins have collectively lost weight, even institutional investors are busy readjusting their portfolio allocations. What does this year-end turbulence really mean?

In simple terms, there are two main disruptive factors. The first is the sharp correction of policy expectations—previously, the market overvalued certain policy dividends, and now the bubble has burst, resulting in a considerable pullback in related assets. The second, and more crucial factor: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations surged from 30% to 84.9% in a short time, and this drastic fluctuation directly impacted the liquidity base of crypto assets. Data shows that the market faced nearly $2 billion in net capital outflow, with related products under BlackRock experiencing a single-day outflow as high as $165 million.

But interestingly, the behavior of market participants has clearly diverged. Ark Invest has spent $39 million to increase its holdings in crypto-related stocks, while institutions like BitMine continue to accumulate mainstream coins as strategic reserves—surveys show that 80% of institutions still include them in their asset allocation lists. But what about the other side? Retail investors are spreading panic, and even projects backed by institutions can easily see weekly declines exceeding 14%. More troubling is the 0.8 correlation coefficient with U.S. stocks, making it difficult for the crypto market to achieve independent movements.

Institutions have long been prepared with defensive measures: 53% of participants have deployed smart risk control systems for real-time monitoring, 42% of funds have started to reduce spot exposure and switch to CME futures for hedging, and many teams are using stablecoins to create buffer zones, effectively locking in an annualized return of 13%. This is not passive risk aversion; rather, it is actively seeking structural opportunities amidst fluctuations.

At the end of the year, instead of making unilateral bets, it's better to focus your energy on "surviving". The crypto market has never given out Christmas bonuses; there are only the eternal games of risk and reward. Rather than getting tangled up in short-term fluctuations, it’s better to learn from institutions: ensure proper risk isolation and diversify your holdings. After all, what helps you traverse cycles is not luck, but a rational judgment of the market and a sense of reverence. If you can endure this round of fluctuations, the ticket for the next cycle will truly belong to you.