#数字资产市场观察 Are there still analysts predicting 150,000 and 200,000 by the end of the year? A simple calculation shows it's not reliable — for $BTC to reach 200,000, it would mean a daily rise of 6%. Even during the craziest bull run, we’ve never seen such a sustained increase, let alone the fact that market confidence and liquidity have already fallen to a yearly low.

Each round of bull-bear transitions follows the same script: some institutions blindly shout high prices, retail investors believe it, and miss the window to escape the peak. After being trapped, they still comfort themselves saying, "This is just a correction, and we can reach new highs later," until the price falls through 80,000 and 70,000, and they finally realize the bear market has truly arrived. By that time, wanting to cut losses? The market cap has already halved.

During the last phase of the bull run, these people were also shouting 100,000, 150,000. Remember a rule: the higher they shout, the faster they actually run away. $ETH is the same, don't get caught in their empty promises. As for institutional predictions, just listen to them, don't take them seriously.