#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 Is the Fed chairman resigning? Has the market overreacted?

This morning, digital currencies collectively plummeted, triggered by rumors circulating in the community that Powell might resign. But looking at the data calmly, it's really not that scary.

The probability given by Polymarket's prediction market is only 3%—in other words, this is basically just a rumor. That's how the crypto market is; any slight disturbance is treated as if the sky is falling. To put it bluntly, it's still because too much leverage was opened up recently, and the market was already on edge.

However, despite the panic, the fundamentals haven't changed much. CME's interest rate futures show that there is still over an 80% chance of a rate cut in March next year; monetary easing is just a matter of time. Looking at the Bitcoin spot ETF, there has been a net inflow of $2.2 billion in the past month, and institutions are still buying. Interestingly, after this round of sharp decline, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has actually increased by 12%, clearly indicating that some people are picking up bargains.

How much of a wave can a rumor with only a 3% probability create? This sharp decline seems more like a cleanup of leveraged positions, with panic traders exiting. If the chips are held steady, the rebound might come faster than expected.

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