#数字货币市场回升 This morning I saw the crypto market crash again, triggered by rumors that Powell might resign. But to be honest, this might be an overinterpretation.

The data on Polymarket is quite interesting: the probability of Powell leaving this year is only 3%. Just think about it, 3%, that's basically at the level of "unlikely to happen". But the market just buys into this—any slight wind or movement makes the leveraged positions unable to hold up, and panic spreads instantly. Ultimately, it still comes down to the fact that the previous rise was too strong, leaving many people feeling uncertain.

However, let's calm down and take a look at the data. CME's interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in March 2026 is still over 80%, and the overall direction of easing hasn't changed, just pushed back a bit in time. Looking at the Bitcoin spot ETF, there has been a net inflow of $2.2 billion in the last 30 days, and institutions are still buying. What's even more interesting is that after this round of sharp decline, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has actually increased by 12%—clearly, some people are picking up bargains.

I feel that this drop is more like an emotional outburst. A rumor with only a 3% probability cannot support real systemic risk. Instead of being led by panic, it is better to see the fundamentals clearly: the rebound that is supposed to come may arrive even faster than expected.

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