#数字货币市场回升 The real driving force behind the global market's Black Monday: a shift in Japan's monetary policy, an underestimated liquidity earthquake?

In this round of plunge, many people are looking at the policy trends in certain regions for reasons. But looking closely at the data, the real trigger may be hiding on the other side of the Pacific - the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy, which has been played for over a decade, is quietly changing its tune.

Let me start with a key signal: Japan's 2-year government bond yield has exceeded 1%. Does this number seem insignificant? Just look back at history, and you'll know that the last time this level appeared was just before the 2008 financial crisis. In other words, Japan has actually entered a rate hike cycle, and the old rules of zero interest rates combined with yield curve control are being gradually dismantled.

Why can changes in Japanese interest rates cause such a huge ripple? It has to do with the special status of the yen. For the past decade or so, the yen has been the world's primary financing currency. A large amount of capital has been borrowed from Japan at an extremely low cost and then invested in U.S. Treasury bonds, stock markets, corporate bonds, and even $BTC, which can yield higher returns. With low costs and a stable exchange rate, the arbitrage opportunities in between are so large that institutions and investors simply can't stop.

But now the rules of the game have changed. The short-end yield has returned to 1%, which means the cost of borrowing yen has risen directly. The interest rate differential for cross-currency arbitrage has been compressed, and what was originally a guaranteed profitable trade has suddenly become less appealing, and may even lead to losses. Once institutions sensed that the wind was blowing in the wrong direction, they immediately began to cut positions and reduce leverage. The global market followed suit and entered a deleveraging mode, with yen funds accelerating their return to the homeland. The demand for buying U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets has consequently declined, while domestic Japanese assets have regained their attractiveness.

Looking again at the exchange rate side. As the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen narrows, the strong position of the US dollar comes under pressure. When the exchange rate fluctuates, funds immediately withdraw in advance to seek safety — this is typical market front-running logic.

Don't underestimate the fact that short-end yields have broken 1%. It is repricing the global arbitrage structure: how US Treasury rates move, how the strength of the dollar evolves, how much volatility there is in risk assets, and ultimately, even investors' risk preferences will have to adjust. Especially in the current environment where high-leverage arbitrage trading is prevalent, strategy funds are exceptionally sensitive to changes in yen interest rates. A slight loosening of the liquidity structure can instantly lead to concentrated selling pressure in the market.

To put it bluntly: players who previously relied on borrowing yen to profit from interest rate differentials have now found that borrowing costs are rising. Concerned that continued increases in costs will erode profits, they simply choose to close their positions early and exit. This may be the deeper logic behind this round of market turbulence — it's not due to a sudden impact from a single policy, but rather that the foundation of global Liquidity is shifting.

Of course, this is just an inference based on market data. However, from the perspective of the causal chain and actual impact, this explanation may be closer to the truth.