#香港稳定币监管框架 ETH breaks through 2850: Is the bearish side dominant or is it the eve of a long positions counterattack?

The recent drop in Ethereum came too suddenly. It fell from 3050 and breached the 3000 level with almost no resistance, reaching a low of around 2870. This is not a normal technical correction, but rather a chain reaction of concentrated selling pressure combined with panic emotions.

The current situation is: long positions have been severely undermined, and short positions temporarily hold the initiative. However, it is important to be cautious, as blindly chasing short positions at low levels also carries risks.

Why has it fallen so quickly? The core reason is that after the psychological barrier of 3000 was breached, the long positions that were originally still observing completely gave up resistance. On the technical side, the MACD green bars suddenly expanded, which typically indicates that a panic sell-off is occurring. It is basically unrealistic to expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term; the price needs time to digest the panic sentiment.

Another noteworthy phenomenon is that large funds are clearly exiting the market. After a prolonged period of sideways consolidation, maintenance costs continue to rise, and choosing to concentrate on selling will trigger a chain of stop-losses, which is exactly the cause of the large bearish candlestick we are seeing.

The signal released by this large bearish candle is very clear: the adjustment is not over yet.

For long positions to regain the initiative, the key is not how high the rebound can go, but whether it can stand firm after the rebound. Currently, there are two important checkpoints that need attention:

**First line of defense: 2930-2950 range.** This is the previous low that has just been broken. If the rebound can recover this area, it indicates that there is still support below. Conversely, if it can't even return to this level, that would be a typical weak rebound.

**Second line of defense: 3000 round number.** This is the dividing line between long positions and short positions. Only by re-establishing above 3000 can we talk about the possibility of a trend reversal. Otherwise, all rebounds are just a continuation of the downtrend, providing better shorting positions for the bears.

From a short positions perspective, the strategy is very clear:

If it effectively breaks below 2850, the next target will be the 2800-2775 area. If the rebound is weak and it cannot even rise above 2930-2950 during the pullback, then the probability of a second dip to 2820-2790 will be very high.

The critical point that really needs to be vigilant about is 2770. Once this position is effectively breached, it could open up a new round of deep adjustment, at which point prices of 2720, 2680, or even lower are not impossible.

To summarize the current situation: 2870 is not the bottom, just a step in the process of decline; for long positions to launch a counterattack, they must reclaim 3000; once it falls below 2850, short positions will still dominate the market direction.

After the market's severe fluctuations, it is the right time to reassess positions and strategies.