The recent big dump of ETH caught everyone off guard. It directly broke through the psychological level of 3000 from 3050, without even giving a decent pullback, crashing straight down to 2870. This is not a technical pullback at all; it’s clearly a combination of concentrated selling pressure and panic selling, a typical emotional meltdown decline.

Both bulls and bears are feeling the pressure now - the bullish confidence has collapsed, and it is equally risky for bears to chase shorts at high levels.

Why is the fall so brutal? The core issue is that the defense line at 3000 has been breached. In the past, every time it reached 3000, there were buy orders supporting it, but this time there was almost zero resistance. The bulls' confidence, which was originally steadfast, vanished in an instant, and the trapped positions turned into selling pressure.

The MACD green bars are expanding wildly, which is a typical signal of a panic sell-off. Want to see a short-term V-shaped reversal? The probability is extremely low; the market needs time to heal the wounds. Institutions and large holders are clearly cashing out in bulk—after so many days of sideways movement, no one is willing to push the price up; the maintenance cost is too high, so they simply liquidate all at once, triggering a chain of stop losses.

The signal released by this big bearish candlestick is very clear: the decline is far from over. For the bulls to turn things around, the key is not whether they can rebound, but whether they can hold their ground after the rebound.

The current battlefield is not at 2870, there are two real life-and-death lines:

The first level is the 2930-2950 range. This is the previous low point that has just been broken. Only if it can pull back and stabilize here can the authenticity of the rebound be validated.

The second level is the 3000 integer barrier. If the rebound cannot recover this level, the trend remains weak; the so-called rebound is just a good opportunity for bears to add positions.

In other words: a rebound that fails to surpass 2950 is considered a weak rebound, and only regaining 3000 could truly signal a reversal. Otherwise? It's just a breather before continuing the fall.

The bearish direction is already very clear, and next we need to closely watch for a breakout continuation:
- A fall below 2850 will trigger a new round of selling, with the target looking towards 2800-2775.
- The rebound fails to break through 2930-2950, and the bears will press down again, revisiting 2820-2790.
- The real killer is effectively breaking below 2770. Once the level is broken, a new trend will begin, and the price may move towards 2720, 2680, or even deeper.

In the end: 2870 is not the real bottom, just a step during the decline; want to counterattack? First, reclaim 3000; fall below 2850? Then the bears continue to control the situation.