Multiple VCs interpret the market pullback: leveraged whipsaw + macro pressure, key signals to watch include these.

[Coin World] Recently, during this pullback in the market, several leading VCs have shared their views. To be honest, this round of fall has been a bit severe, mainly driven by two factors.

Let’s first talk about the concentrated liquidation on October 10th. Rob Hadick, a partner at Dragonfly, stated it very clearly: the market liquidity was insufficient, risk control was not done well, and with the vulnerabilities in the oracle and leverage design, these three issues combined directly triggered large-scale deleveraging. Boris Revsin from Tribe Capital was even harsher, calling it “leveraged washout,” and he emphasized that this was not a localized issue; the entire market was affected.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic situation is also not very encouraging. The expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, inflation remains sticky and won't come down, employment data is starting to weaken, geopolitical tensions are rising, and consumption is also sluggish—risk assets have been under pressure for the past two months. Anirudh Pai from Robot Ventures has noticed that some leading economic indicators in the U.S. have begun to turn downwards, somewhat resembling the previous period of “recession fears,” but it is still uncertain whether it will actually slide into a full-blown recession.

What's more troublesome is that, apart from a few tokens with buyback support, there is basically no new money coming into the market. The inflow speed on the ETF side has also slowed down, so once the price falls, it just can't be stopped.

Looking ahead, how should we proceed? VCs unanimously believe that the key still depends on whether the macro route is clear—how interest rate policies are adjusted, who the next head of the Federal Reserve will be; these have a significant impact on risk assets. We are currently in a data gap period, and the volatility will be more pronounced; the next employment data release may be an important signal. Of course, the acceleration of on-chain activities, the spillover of AI trading sentiment, payment, and tokenization are long-term driving forces that the market may still be underestimating.

The market is currently in a “preliminary stabilization phase,” but it's still early to say that it has bottomed out. Bitcoin has rebounded from around $80,000, and ETF inflows have slightly improved, but it remains very sensitive to interest rates, inflation, and AI earnings reports. Several interviewees identified the $100,000 to $110,000 range as a key position for sentiment reversal. If ETF inflows can continue to be net positive, and derivatives open interest rises moderately without excessive leverage, then it may truly establish a solid footing.

Interestingly, this round of pullback has brought the valuations of some quality tokens with actual income potential back to 2024 levels, but the on-chain fundamentals have become even more solid, and the cost-effectiveness is beginning to show. In addition, the proportion of Bitcoin did not rise significantly during this round of fall, indicating that there is still a willingness to allocate funds to high-quality altcoins.