November in the red: and now, bitcoin?

Source: Exame Original Title: November in the red: and now, bitcoin? Original Link: November 2025 will be marked as one of the most difficult months in the history of bitcoin. The period is traditionally nicknamed “Moonvember” for recording significant gains for the asset, but this time, bitcoin couldn't close in the green ( and even less “go to the moon”).

In the early afternoon of Friday, the 28th, however, after a drop that brought the currency down to $80,000, the price was recovering to the level of $90,000, trading at $92,600, with an appreciation of about 11% in 7 days.

Many of the altcoins among the largest in market cap also saw a boost, such as ETH, which appreciated 13% in a week, as well as SOL (+12%), XRP (+17%), HYPE (+8%), and LINK (+12%).

The total capitalization of the crypto market has risen again, to $3.15 trillion, reflecting a more favorable risk sentiment.

The Fear and Greed Index reached the rare mark of 10 ( out of 100 points) this week, moving from Extreme Fear to Fear (20). In episodes where the indicator hit 10 or below, the historical data shows an average gain of nearly 7% in 15 days and 10% in 7 and 30 days.

If Bitcoin maintains its upward movement, alternative cryptos may ride the wave and register more significant increases.

Still, this new breath is received with caution, mainly due to the complexity of the macro environment.

Worst “Moonvember” in recent history

Despite the momentary relief, the accumulated drop of bitcoin amounts to almost 16%, marking the fifth November to close in the red since 2013. The break of the positive seasonal tradition has generated a sense of surprise.

Analysts observe that investors were used to a predictable four-year cycle, which typically led to good rallies at the end of the year.

But the current reading is that institutional entry at scale has changed the cadence of the market, adjusting the rhythm, intensity, and even the timing of when movements occur. The market is more mature. This reinforces the feeling that this cycle no longer follows exactly the script of the previous ones.

Recoveries tend to be slower.

What worries behind the high

The rise to the current $92,000, although welcome, hides some weaknesses. The data shows that the reaction is not supported by the trading volume necessary for a convincing push. The on-chain transfer volume has dropped by about 20% in the last week, while spot volume remains modest.

This means that there is a divergence: the price rises, but the real interest of the market does not follow at the same intensity. Without an increase in spot volume, indicating a recovery in demand and renewed engagement, it becomes difficult to sustain more significant advances.

Furthermore, BTC now faces a series of technical resistances. The first major test is in the range between $93,000 and $96,000. Heat maps show that half a million bitcoins were bought in this range, creating a zone of strong selling pressure.

Once this barrier is surpassed, the next significant resistance wall is between $100,000 and $108,000. At this level, many buyers may sell to break even as soon as the price approaches the amount they paid.

Fed and global liquidity

The advancement of the crypto sphere this week has a lot to do with the change in the reading about the Fed. Bets now place more than 86% chance of a rate cut in December and this greater optimism reignites the appetite for risk. Bitcoin follows the flow.

Even with a more favorable mood, global liquidity remains tight, and this still limits broader movements in the market.

Even so, subtle signs of improvement are beginning to emerge. There isn't exactly a coordinated cycle of monetary expansion, but any relief makes a difference for bitcoin in the coming months.

A key point will be the Fed meeting on the upcoming days of December 9 and 10. A firmer signal of easing could serve as the additional boost that the market expects.

If the Fed adopts a more restrained tone, the market tends to lose momentum more easily.

ETFs and capital outflows

Spot bitcoin ETFs, one of the major drivers of this bull market, are experiencing a different moment.

The funds accumulated billions in net outflows in November, reflecting a market more averse to risk. To honor the redemptions, the managers sell part of their holdings, which puts pressure on the price.

For the scenario to change, it will be necessary to see a reversal in this flow, with the return of net inflows that can support a new phase of growth.

Derivatives, volatility, and defense

The derivatives market (futures and options) shows that a good part of the excessive leverage has already left the scene. Those who were heavily betting had to reduce their positions, and this has left the market cleaner.

However, this process did not come accompanied by a strong buying movement. Many investors remain more concerned with protecting themselves than with increasing their exposure. This can be seen in the behavior of options, where the demand for insurance against price drops is increasing.

This behavior makes the crypto sphere less susceptible to explosive movements in the short term. For us to see a more consistent rise, it would be necessary for the interest in the asset in the spot market, that is, the actual purchase of bitcoin, to regain strength.

That said, in this moment of uncertain mood, some see opportunity, others see the end of the party.

The market seems to be at a defining point, between a recovery and resumption, or the continuation of the search for new lows.

While we await a clearer definition on the way forward, staying calm and closely monitoring the movements is the best decision.