Recently, I noticed a signal worth following — Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the probability given by the market has reached fifty percent.

The core logic behind the expectation of this interest rate hike is actually very straightforward: the yen has been depreciating, leading to soaring import costs, and the imported inflation is becoming increasingly unbearable, which has already started to drag down the Japanese economy. Today, there is an important statement from the Bank of Japan, which will basically determine whether or not they will raise interest rates this time.

Why pay attention to this matter? Looking back at last July, the sudden interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan directly triggered a global market explosion—many yen carry trades were forced to close, and the tech sector in the US stock market led the decline. The volatility at that time is still impressive today. Currently, US stocks are hovering at high levels, and concerns about the AI sector's bubble have not subsided, so it's always wise to stay alert during such times.

However, that being said, this "sneak attack" is quite different from the last time. The market has already formed certain expectations, and the funds that previously leveraged the yen to speculate on U.S. stocks have also pulled back considerably. The impact may not be as fierce as last time, but the chain reaction from tightening liquidity still needs to be guarded against.