Many people ask me when the next bull run will come. My judgment is: the earliest by the end of 2025, and at the latest in the first half of 2026.

This is not a knee-jerk reaction, but based on three clear historical contexts.

**First, let's talk about the most hardcore—this iron law of the halving cycle.**

Bitcoin halves every four years, and in the past three cycles, without exception: 12 to 18 months after the halving, the market enters a major bull run. The next halving will be completed in April 2024, and based on this pace, the window period will be from the end of 2025 to early 2026. Of course, history does not simply repeat itself, but the rhymes are always similar.

**Looking at the macro perspective again - the flow of money is the real barometer.**

Currently, the world is still stuck in a high interest rate environment, with high capital costs, making risk assets naturally untouchable. However, the Federal Reserve's stance has already shifted. If a rate cut channel truly opens in 2025, it will be a different scene. Once the floodgates open, money will have to find a place to go. Stock market? Real estate? Or the more flexible returns of the crypto market? Smart money has already been calculating.

**Finally, it's the narrative - every bull run needs a new story to support it.**

In 2021, DeFi and NFTs took the lead. What about the next round? I believe concepts like RWA (Real World Assets on-chain), the combination of AI and blockchain, and full-chain interoperability will become the main characters. The maturity of Layer 2 and Layer 3 technologies has also reached the point of explosion. Without a new narrative, there is no new funding; this is an iron law.

**The timeline is roughly as follows:**

2024 is a bottoming year, the market continues to be grinding after the halving, new narratives are starting to emerge but haven't taken shape yet.

The year 2025 is a warming-up period, with macro policies shifting and early funds starting to quietly enter the market, gradually bringing heat to the trading boards.

The real frenzy will be in 2026, with FOMO emotions spreading, retail investors flooding in, and the bubble beginning to expand.

**What should we do now?**

Don’t rush to chase highs, and don’t panic due to short-term declines. The period from 2024 to 2025 is your golden window for building positions in batches. Allocate mainstream coins accordingly and research new sectors that need to be explored. Patience is more important than anything else; your competition is your future self two years from now.

Spend more time understanding RWA, AI+Crypto, Layer 2, and don't wait until the bull run to find yourself empty-handed.

The thing about a bull run is that it always quietly sprouts in despair. When everyone is shouting about a bull run, the peak is not far off.