Last week, the A-shares experienced a roller coaster market.

After six consecutive days of decline that created a deep pit of 200 points, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index finally made a comeback last week, reclaiming all the losses from the large bearish candle on November 21. The Shanghai Composite Index is still a bit lacking, as the pit hasn't been completely filled yet. Out of five trading days, four saw widespread gains, especially on Friday—despite a reduction of over 124 billion in trading volume, more than 4,100 stocks were in the green. This is somewhat eerie to mention, as the market has always believed in "low volume indicates low prices," and a significant rise on low volume? It doesn't quite align with common sense.

But there is a problem that needs to be clarified. The surge on Friday looked quite lively, but the money didn't follow. The trading volume evaporated by 124 billion compared to the previous day, just like a restaurant with half the customers but serving dishes more enthusiastically than usual. How long can this momentum last? It's worth questioning.

**Today the opening will likely be positive**

U.S. stocks rebounded collectively last Friday, and this sentiment is likely to carry over, with a significant possibility of a high open or even a gap up in the early session. But don't just focus on the few minutes of opening color; there are three pitfalls to be aware of:

**The first pit: the gap is not filled**
Although last week's rebound was strong, the daily candlestick chart left several upward gaps. When these gaps will be filled and whether they will be filled is uncertain at this point. The weak performance of the Shanghai Composite Index has already indicated the issue—funds are still hesitating at this level.

**The second pit: weak trading volume**
The shrinking trading volume on Friday is the biggest drawback. Looking back at the data from the past 9 years, it can be found that for the A-shares to perform well in December, the prerequisite is that the trading volume must increase compared to November. Now, the situation is that not only has the volume not increased, but it has continued to shrink. If today’s movement is only a bounce due to the stimulus from the US stock market, and the trading volume still doesn't rise, it is highly likely to "open high and close low" or "rise and then fall back."

**Third Pitfall: Chaotic Sector Rotation**
Last week, technology stocks (such as communications, media, CPO, etc.) led the market, attracting a lot of attention. If today suddenly shifts to big sectors like banks, insurance, and coal—note that the trading volume in these sectors has already significantly declined last week—forcing a rise in a low-volume context will not only be difficult to achieve, but it will also disperse the hot capital. In the end, it might result in "the index rises, but the account remains unchanged," directly suppressing market activity.

**Focus on two key points**

Whether the rebound can continue depends on these two points:

**Has the incremental capital arrived?**
The money in the over-the-counter market is still on the sidelines. Without new money coming in to take over, this rebound is like a tree without roots. Can today's trading volume return to around 1.8 trillion or even higher? This is the most direct signal. If the volume picks up, there is a chance for the market; if the volume doesn't increase, then we need to be cautious.

**Is sector rotation healthy?**
If technology stocks can continue to be active today and drive other growth stocks to follow, the profit-making effect can be sustained. However, if the focus shifts to those blue-chip stocks with low trading volume, it basically means that funds are looking for a safe haven, which would be a blow to market sentiment.

**How to see today**

The market opened higher, driven by US stocks, so a strong opening or a quick surge in the morning is not a big issue. However, how it moves afterwards depends on two scenarios:

- If there is a significant increase in trading volume (the transaction amount is obviously larger than Friday), the index may have the opportunity to test the previous high, and the rebound may continue.
- If the volume continues to be either unlimited or reduced, a high opening followed by a rise is mostly a trap for more buyers, and it is likely to face resistance and pull back later. The Shenzhen market may very well fill the gap from last Tuesday, and it's time for the rebound to take a break.

Additionally, be cautious: if large entities like bank insurance are aggressively pushed during trading, but the trading volume cannot keep up, it is likely that funds are avoiding risk. Such operations can easily dampen market sentiment.

In short: Don't just look at whether the opening is in the red; paying close attention to the trading volume during the session is the real deal. If there's an increase in volume, there’s still hope, but if the volume decreases, you need to be cautious of market fluctuations. The market is still in a volatile pattern, and without sufficient volume, it’s difficult to have any sustained breakthroughs.