The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December is 87.4%. Has the market already begun to price it in?

Question

[Block Rhythm] The latest market trend is here: According to CME's “Fed Watch” tool, a 25 basis point rate cut in December? The probability of this happening is as high as 87.4%. The possibility of not cutting rates is only 12.6%, which can basically be said to be a done deal.

Looking further ahead to January next year: the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the status quo is 9.2%, and the probability of a drastic move of cutting 50 basis points? 23.2%.

The expectation of interest rate cuts is so clear, which is no small matter for risk assets. The market has already started pricing it in; are you ready to take it on?

MetaverseLandlord · Accepted Answer

87.4%? With such a probability, what are you hesitating for? If you don&#39;t act now, when will you?

The interest rate cut is really a done deal, the question is whether you truly have the bullets in hand.

50 basis points in January? I can&#39;t even dare to think about it, if it really happens, it will be too intense.

Wait, things that are priced usually require a reverse operation, do you have this awareness?

Stay calm, don&#39;t panic, let it fall if it has to, an interest rate cut is not a good thing.

BrokeBeans · Answer

87.4% right? It feels like this number has already been thoroughly analyzed. Now that I&#39;m considering jumping in, I&#39;m afraid I might be catching a falling knife.

NFTRegretter · Answer

87.4%? Uh, this probability sounds quite solid, but I always feel like the market is going to reverse operations.

Now everyone is betting on interest rate cuts, but when the actual announcement comes, it will probably lead to dumping, right? Haven&#39;t we suffered this loss before?

SnapshotBot · Answer

87.4%? Sounds stable, but I don&#39;t believe it... Every time it says this, it ends up reversing.

RektHunter · Answer

87.4% probability? This probability seems a bit unrealistic, it was also so certain before...

Those who entered early should have exited, let&#39;s talk after the pricing is done.

50 basis points? Now that would be exciting, let&#39;s wait and see.

Pricing, pricing, it&#39;s easy to say, but when it really falls, it&#39;s still Cut Loss.

We&#39;ll see the outcome in January next year, it&#39;s too early to place bets now.

This data feels like a bait, don&#39;t be fooled.

WhaleMistaker · Answer

87.4% This number sounds quite precarious, but we won&#39;t know how it goes until December.

The interest rate cut pricing has probably been fully speculated already, so entering the market now is like being a dumb buyer, right?

Cutting directly by 50 basis points? Only someone insane would believe that; the Fed isn&#39;t that ruthless.

What are we even looking at for January? We should be thinking about how to stop loss right now.

If we can&#39;t get out of this wave, just wait to be trapped.

GateUser-5854de8b · Answer

There&#39;s an 87% probability, it&#39;s time to buy the dip, just afraid that after the pricing is done it will reverse again.

OnchainHolmes · Answer

87.4% This number seems a bit inflated. Will it really drop by then? It&#39;s hard to say.

GasWaster69 · Answer

87.4% is so high already, it feels like it&#39;s a done deal.