ETH Could Reach $7,800 After FUSAKA, Analysts Say, as Pectra-Era Pattern Reappears

ETH’s past Pectra gains shape projections of $4,500 in January and $7,800 by March 2026.

Charts show ETH rebounding from a key demand zone, with structure pointing toward $6,500+.

Falling exchange reserves and strong ETF inflows reinforce a tightening supply-driven outlook.

Ethereum traded at $3,007 at the time of writing, and market researchers now study earlier upgrade cycles to map the next move. According to analysis prepared by several chart specialists, the pattern that followed the Pectra Upgrade in May 2025 may guide projections for the coming months as the network approaches the FUSAKA Upgrade on 3 December 2025.

ETH Could Skyrocket to $7.8K After FUSAKA Upgrade, History Shows

The last Pectra Upgrade on 7 May 2025 triggered sharp activity. ETH gained 55% in 35 days and 168% in 109 days, and these numbers build the new projection model. According to an observation by Crypto Patel, the same windows point to $4,500 on 7 January 2026 and $7,800 on 22 March 2026 if the pattern returns.

LLuciano_BTC reported that ETH broke a descending trendline in early May and then moved in a steady uptrend into July. His chart shows ETH reaching near $4,750 before forming a downward channel from September to November. Price later returned to the earlier support zone and recorded a new rebound. His projection places a possible continuation toward $4,000 and above as ETH exits the channel.

Source: LLuciano_BTC(X)

ETH also moved back into the demand zone that supported the Pectra rally. Analysts now track the range between $2,700 and $3,100 because it forms the structure before the FUSAKA event. Analysts state that the projection shows a rising path that pushes above $6,500 and then approaches $7,800 during early 2026.

Supply Trends and Institutional Activity Support the Structure

Exchange reserves fell by 2.11%, which usually means fewer coins stay on exchanges. According to data from CryptoQuant, this drop supports price stability because lower supply often reduces pressure during tests of resistance zones such as $3,058 and $3,618

Analysts add that the price structure improved as reserves declined. Institutional flows also increased. Farside data shows that Ethereum ETF products recorded $312 million in net inflows over five days

Arkham reported new inflows of $44.3 million to wallets linked to Tom Lee. Ethereum also gained from interest linked to network upgrades. The FUSAKA update will bring features such as Peer Data Availability Sampling, verkle trees, and predictable blob fees.

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