I flipped through the old records of the US stock market and found an interesting pattern - December is simply the "money-giving month."

Starting from 1928, the S&P 500 has increased in December 73.2% of the time, ranking first among all months. It has only dropped 26 times in 97 years, with an average increase of 1.28%. The data after World War II is even more exaggerated, soaring to an average monthly increase of 1.50%.

If this "Christmas rally" continues into this year, will the cryptocurrency market also get excited as traditional capital markets heat up? After all, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is evident. This year-end time window might be another opportunity worth waiting for.

BTC-6.73%

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SellLowExpert

· 15h ago

Dude, the historical patterns are just a probability game, don't get dizzy from the 73% Wait, the NASDAQ is so closely tied to BTC? Then I need to buy the dip, otherwise, I'll be trapped again A 1.5% rise in December sounds good, but it’s not guaranteed This year's market is so strange, is the Christmas rally reliable? I feel like I’ve been played for suckers The S&P 500's data over a hundred years sounds amazing, but what we fear is that this time it’s that "27 times" haha Old sayings are just old sayings, we still have to watch the Fed's mood.

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LowCapGemHunter

· 15h ago

Wait, is this data too optimistic? Does historical pattern still work in the current environment? --- Sending money in December? Why do I feel like it’s all a trap, can this year be the same... --- The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq, to be honest, is a bit annoying. I just want to see an independent market. --- The Christmas market dynamics depend on the Fed's stance, otherwise it's all in vain. --- A 73.2% probability sounds wild, but I can't risk my money to verify it. --- Waiting for opportunities at the end of the year? Let’s wait and see the inflation data first, don’t rush to go all in.

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Liquidated_Larry

· 15h ago

A 73% probability sounds impressive, but I bet this is just another case of survivor bias... Who remembers the big dump in December a few years back? The fact that BTC is correlated with the Nasdaq simply means that TradFi is starting to take crypto seriously, so don't expect it to have an independent market. It feels like we're going to get played for suckers again.

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ThreeHornBlasts

· 15h ago

Wait, a 73% win rate? Is this data reliable, or is it just another case of survivor bias? BTC is indeed closely correlated with the Nasdaq, but I don't believe in the idea of free money in December; it feels like hindsight bias. The Christmas rally is a false proposition; if money was really going to come, it would have been drained long ago. The stability of the rise in December is even scarier; if retail investors rush in, it's all over. For this wave, I'm still observing to see how institutions move.

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RektRecorder

· 16h ago

Sending money in December? Dude, I've looked at all the historical data, but whether it will crash this time is really uncertain. Follow the trend to speculate or hold coins steadily? Just decide for yourself. The day the historical pattern breaks is the beginning of eating noodles. BTC is indeed closely linked to the Nasdaq, but that doesn't mean December is a sure profit... Christmas market, haha, I hear this saying every year, and then it's always "this time is different"? The strongest December since 2013? I don't believe you at all. That being said, waiting is definitely better than random trading.

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