What happens after a monthly candle closes with a bearish signal? If you look back at historical data, you'll find that in a bull run, the probability of a big pump occurring in the following month exceeds 80%. The so-called "bull retracement" often comes from this.

The expectations for December are actually quite clear— the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points has soared to 87.6%, and the balance sheet reduction is also set to exit. With liquidity easing, the three major U.S. stock indices have already risen for five consecutive days, and the signals for a rebound in tech stocks are very clear. When the U.S. stock market rises, the Asia-Pacific markets usually do not lag behind.

The ChiNext index rebounded significantly last week, rising by a maximum of 7.6%, with a single-day increase of 4.54% on Friday. It has retraced 13.1% from the peak, hitting the moving average position from May — this position has historically been a key support level during pullbacks. Is there a window for adding positions? It might just be in the next few days.

The adjustments of the constituent stocks in major indices have revealed the trend: telecom equipment, AI, chips, and new energy are being heavily invested in. The pattern of "Shanghai weak, Shenzhen strong" will not change in the short term, and the high-tech main line will continue to lead.

Another hidden line worth noting is that traditional strong sectors such as chemicals, electricity, rare earths, super-hard materials, and brokerage firms have basically completed their pullbacks. If they start in December, their explosive power may not be inferior to that of tech stocks.

Chasing rises and selling on dips during a bull run is a big taboo. If you avoid the downturn, you often miss the big pump. Holding your position and waiting for the market to start up again - this may be the most stable choice right now.