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I believe the higher probability falls on the side of we are still in a bull market. However, don't expect new ATHs in December.
As I've been saying for months now, the tariff crash and US gov shutdown disrupted the liquidity cycle and has pushed the timeline back. I believe we start to see new ATHs in Q1 2026.
The macro is setting us up for a true blowoff top. This includes:
- Extreme Fear sentiment with the herd saying the top is in
- Fed ending QT and economic data showing they will have to go to QE sooner than expected. Plus continued rate cuts
- Other central banks starting QE, Japan recently approved massive stimulus. This will drive more liquidity in markets
- Trump potentially sending retail $2K tariff stimulus checks
- Crypto market structure bill has not passed yet. This is a huge landmark moment, I don't think market makers and whales would just let this epic buy the rumor sell the news even pass by for a huge blowoff top.