Goldman Sachs has thrown out a bombshell prediction: by the end of 2026, gold prices could reach $4,900. Sounds exaggerated? But the logic behind it is worth serious consideration for everyone who follows BTC and ETH — this matter may be more closely related to the direction of the crypto market than you think.

**Why has gold suddenly become so strong?**

First, let's talk about the first driving force: central banks around the world are frantically stockpiling gold. Since 2022, global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually, doubling their share of total market demand to 23%. The freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves served as a warning bell for many countries—can the dollar be trusted? As a result, emerging markets have begun to treat gold as a "stateless safe", and this undercurrent of "de-dollarization" is accelerating. Goldman Sachs estimates that in the next two years, central banks will need to buy an additional 70-80 tons each year, which sets a hard floor for gold prices.

The second push is more direct: the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates. Gold does not earn interest, so it is most afraid of a high interest rate environment. But now the expectation is that there is still a space for a rate cut of 75 to 100 basis points, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. Looking back at the easing cycle from 2008 to 2015, the gold price soared from 800 USD to 1900 USD. Will history repeat itself?

**Market structure hides amplifiers**

The gold market is actually not very "big"; the ETF scale is only one-seventieth of that of U.S. Treasuries. This small pool is particularly susceptible to large waves created by capital. There is an interesting estimate: if buyers increase their holdings by 100 tons, the gold price can rise by about 1.7%. When the three forces of ETF capital inflows, speculative capital, and central bank gold purchases resonate, the volatility will be significantly amplified.

**But don't just look at the positives**

If the geopolitical situation eases, the demand for safe-haven assets will immediately cool down. If inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may "hold its position", and the expectations for interest rate cuts will need to be repriced. Technically, there is often a pullback pressure around integer levels. There is also a more subtle point - cryptocurrencies as "digital gold" are siphoning off some funds. Privacy-focused coins like ZEC are, to some extent, also competing with gold's "safe-haven" narrative.

**Deeper changes are happening**

The underlying logic of gold pricing is changing. In the past, it mainly focused on real interest rates, but now the weight of central bank strategic allocation is becoming increasingly significant. Behind this is a deep-seated skepticism about the global dollar credit system—this skepticism is precisely the same force that is pushing BTC from the margins into the mainstream.

**Advice for Gate Users**

If private investors also start to diversify their allocations on a large scale, $4900 may just be a way station. But neither gold nor encryption assets should be treated as short-term speculative tools. A reasonable approach is: to hold a portion through gold ETFs or physical assets, while maintaining moderate allocations in mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, to build a truly diversified portfolio. The monetary system is being restructured, and preserving value is the hard truth.