Institutional capital "position shifting" undercurrents: The real game behind the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF

When BlackRock "gives way", the market bottom may truly be established.

On November 28, 2025, after several weeks of blood loss, the Bitcoin spot ETF market suddenly experienced a net inflow of $71.37 million. This was not just a simple return of the prodigal son, but a "institutional shift" initiated by ARK Invest and Fidelity—on that day, ARKB attracted $88.04 million, while FBTC harvested $77.45 million; however, the industry giant BlackRock's IBIT unusually saw a net outflow of $114 million. This pattern of "the leader giving way, while the second and third charge forward" reveals a more genuine shift in market power than a general rise.

The essence of capital flow is "risk repricing".

The Coinbase premium index ends 22 days of negative values, a signal that was accurately captured in the original text. The index turning positive means that American buyers are willing to pay a higher price than the global market, indicating a depletion of local selling pressure. But the deeper logic is that institutions are reassessing the balance point between year-end liquidity risk and expectations of Federal Reserve policy.

In November, Bitcoin once fell to a low of $80,000, marking the largest monthly decline since June 2022. This steep adjustment coincided with the dollar index dropping over 0.3%, and what seems to be a contradictory trend actually lays the groundwork for the return of ETF funds—when the depreciation of the exchange rate failed to immediately boost the coin price, it indicates that the market is more concerned about liquidity exhaustion rather than macro value. Now that ETF funds have turned around, it proves that institutions have confirmed a pricing of over 85% probability for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, and the tightest liquidity period has passed.

Technical aspect: The "quality" of a golden cross is more important than its "shape".

The original text mentions the hourly MACD golden cross and RSI rising to 65, which is indeed a bullish signal. However, professional traders should pay more attention to the conditions for the golden cross to be met:

1. Low Volatility Golden Cross: The current BTC volatility has decreased from around 80% in early November to about 55%. A low-level golden cross is often more reliable than a high-level dead cross.

2. Divergence confirmation: The price reversed in a V-shape from $81,000 to $91,200, but the RSI did not reach a corresponding new high, indicating that the upward momentum is moderate rather than explosive, which actually extends the rebound's lifespan.

3. Support density: The range of $89,000-$90,000 is not only a psychological barrier but also a dense price area for short-term holders. This zone formed strong resistance in August-September and has now turned into support, indicating that the chip structure reconstruction is complete.

The real technical challenge is at $91,500 - this is the intersection of the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart and the rebound high from November 23. A breakthrough here requires volume support; otherwise, it is easy to form a false breakout trap.

The "ice and fire" of institutional positions

BlackRock's IBIT position floating profit has returned to 3.2 billion USD, which seems impressive, but a single-day outflow of 114 million USD exposes the hidden risks in its client structure. As the preferred choice for institutional allocation, IBIT's subscriptions and redemptions reflect the quarterly rebalancing needs of long-term funds such as pension funds and family offices. At the year-end window period, these clients have the motivation to lock in profits and adjust their equity-coin ratio.

In contrast, ARKB and FBTC have clients mostly consisting of high-net-worth individuals and hedge funds, who are more adept at capturing short-term beta. Their inflows signify that "smart money" is beginning to bet on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. This switch of "long-term funds retreating and tactical funds entering" typically occurs in the second phase of building a mid-term bottom.

Nasdaq has proposed to relax the IBIT options position limit, which indeed has some room for interpretation as "regulatory warming", but the substantive impact is limited. The expansion of the options market mainly enhances price discovery efficiency, with no direct push on spot prices. What is truly noteworthy is the net inflow of $76.54 million into the Ethereum spot ETF on the same day, of which BlackRock's ETHA alone accounted for $68.26 million. This indicates that institutions are not fully retreating, but rather adjusting the relative weights of BTC and ETH—while BTC becomes the bearer of the "digital gold" narrative, ETH is gaining a "digital bond" positioning through staking rewards and the Layer 2 ecosystem, and the allocation logic of the two has already diverged.

Macroeconomic Environment: The "Running Ahead" Game Under Interest Rate Cut Expectations

The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December has become the core catalyst for this round of rebound. However, the market has already priced it in: CME FedWatch shows a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut in December. This means that when the good news is realized, if there is no unexpectedly dovish guidance, it may instead trigger a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" correction.

The deeper risk lies in the negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling. By the end of November, Congress needs to resolve the temporary funding bill, and any political deadlock will trigger a liquidity pullback. At that time, Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, will be the first to bear the brunt. Currently, the market is immersed in a rate cut frenzy, almost completely ignoring this tail risk.

Is it a real breakthrough or a trap? Three verification signals

Short term (1-2 weeks): If BTC can hold above $91,500 and the Coinbase premium remains positive, a rebound can be seen up to $93,500. However, if the RSI breaks above 75 into the overbought zone and the trading volume does not increase, caution is needed for a pullback to $89,000.

Mid-term (monthly): A true bull market restart requires:

1. The ETF has seen a net inflow for 10 consecutive days, totaling over $1 billion (currently only 3 days, with a total of less than $200 million).

2. The number of on-chain whale addresses (>1000 BTC) is recovering and growing (currently in consolidation)

3. The market capitalization of stablecoins grew by more than 2% week-on-week (USDT + USDC currently about 160 billion, growth is weak)

Long-term (quarterly): Only if the Federal Reserve confirms the interest rate cut path for 2026 and the U.S. government clarifies the cryptocurrency regulatory framework can it support BTC to hit above the $100,000 high.

Conclusion: Participation in the rebound is possible, but faith must be cautious.

The current market is characterized as a tactical rebound driven by policy expectations, rather than a trend reversal. Operation strategy:

• Light position participation: If it retraces to the 89000-90000 USD range, a 20% position can be established, with a stop loss set at 87500 USD.

• Do not chase highs: Do not chase after prices above $91,500, wait for a breakout confirmation or a deep correction.

• Hedge tail risks: Buy put options expiring at the end of December with a strike price of $85,000, with a premium of about $800, to insure against potential political risks.

The market always nurtures hope in despair and hides dangers in exuberance. The net inflow of the ETF on November 28 indicates that smart money has sensed a loosening of policy windows, but the foundation of the trend has yet to be solidified. Investors should enjoy the rebound, but must not get "high" at this moment—true bull markets never require FOMO emotions for endorsement. #十二月降息预测