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Is there still a possibility of a new high if it doesn't drop below 74?

There are quite a few bullish individuals now (I know that there aren't any left in the Chinese community, mainly in the English community) whose main arguments are "74 is the last support," "as long as it doesn't drop below 74 structurally, the bull market is still on," "higher lows," and so on.

Their viewpoints are shown in the diagram, indicating that since this cycle, the three peaks are successively higher on March 21, 2024, January 21, 2025, and October 6, 2025, while the lows are on August 5, 2024, April 7, 2025, and November 21, 2025, also successively higher. Therefore, as long as it does not fall below 74000, meaning that after the drop from 126000 it does not fall below 74000, this low point still represents a "higher low," thus the bull market continues.

For those observing a bearish market, whether using time periods or the MA50 moving average, they can conclude that "a bear market has already begun."

From this image since 2015, every time it falls below the red line (weekly MA50), it indicates a deeper adjustment.

Both sides support their arguments with different evidence, and it seems that each has its own reasoning. So how can we determine if we are really in a bear market? We still need to go back and analyze the candlestick charts from the past 10 years.

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First is the chart from 2017-2018, where the support level is around 5400, which is the last weekly level pullback point before the peak in 2017. It can be seen that after the decline in 2018, Bitcoin has never fallen below 5400. Therefore, the potential bullish scenario can still be regarded as breaking new highs after a pullback (i.e., the red line).

However, after rebounding to around 8000 and being blocked by the weekly MA50, it fell and completely broke below 5400 by the end of 2018, entering a bear market. It wasn't until April 2019 that it stood back above the weekly MA50 and rebounded to around 15000.

What everyone is more familiar with is that in 2022, Bitcoin fell from its peak of 69000 to a low of around 33000 in January. At this moment, it still forms an "HL", meaning it did not break the lowest point of 29000 from the summer of 2021. Therefore, there is still a possibility of reaching a new high. It then rebounded to the highest range of 48000, but a LH (lower high) appeared, and subsequently, in June 2022 (luna 3ac), it broke to a new low.

The structure here may be similar, as it falls below MA50 but does not make a new low, the "bullish potential scenario" still exists. However, it can also be seen that the HLs in 2018 and 2022 did not lead to HHs, but rather to LHs, and subsequently did indeed break support.

Therefore, leaving aside macro news, just looking at the charts, if this replicates 2018/2022, I do not believe that a simple "HL" structure can definitely lead to a new high. After all, the past two HLs did not lead to HH but ultimately broke down.

If there is a replica, we expect a LH rebound next, hopefully reaching 112. After the LH rebound, the greatest possibility is to break down and confirm LL, which means the endpoint of this round of adjustment should at least break below 74000 and lower.

This is purely based on charts and a four-year cycle. And now that Bitcoin has ETFs, with Wall Street money involved, and QT is at the end point, whether there will be changes is unknown.

For most English-speaking bulls, I believe the main misconception they fall into (or perhaps a way to attract followers) is continuously lowering the conditions for disproving the bull case, making it "very hard to be disproven". As a result, when they are completely disproven, the market is already close to the absolute bottom.

Therefore, the complete disproof of the bulls is often not a signal that a bear market has arrived, but rather a signal that the bear market is about to hit the bottom.

This round of the bull market, especially the first four-year cycle top (see my pinned article), does not exhibit a "non-blowoff top"; indicators such as the rainbow chart, fee rates, Google Trends, and ahr999 have all failed, causing the cycle theory leaders not to escape the top successfully (credibull, astronomer, mayne, you name it). They either deny that the bull market has peaked (having not escaped the top themselves) or continue to provide very difficult-to-refute conditions to ensure they are still correct.

Therefore, my view currently differs from the big brothers in the English zone, as I believe there will be an LH followed by a further decline, rather than a new high again.

Of course, if this round is indeed different and Bitcoin breaks new highs again, it means the big players are really amazing and have seen things that I haven't, making the correct judgment in the end. If there are indeed signs of breaking new highs, I will also chase again after selling at 112.

If the big brothers judged incorrectly and ultimately it is LH leading to LL, I don't think it's the time to completely deny the big brothers' theories. The subsequent bottom-fishing should still be considered an important reference.

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