The Truth Behind the "Resignation" Rumors of Powell: Market Game in the Fog of Information

Why an unverified message has caused a stir

Regarding the rumors of "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's sudden resignation after the emergency meeting at the end of the year," after verifying with multiple sources, there is currently no official channel to confirm this news. Authoritative financial media such as Reuters and Bloomberg have not published related reports, and neither the Federal Reserve's official website nor Powell himself has made any statements. The dissemination of this information reflects the sensitive nerves of the market during the liquidity crunch at the end of the year—when funds become tight, any slight movement can easily trigger an overreaction.

However, the liquidity value of rumors should not be overlooked. Bitcoin rapidly surged from $81,000 to $91,000 during the fermentation of news, and the dollar index fell in response. This drastic fluctuation reveals a deeper logic: the market's desire for a shift in Fed policy has accumulated to a critical point, and any narrative that could change the monetary policy path will become an outlet for emotional release.

The real situation is as follows: Powell is still in office, but there is indeed controversy.

According to public information, Powell's term as chairman is not officially due until May 2026, and his term as a Federal Reserve governor extends even further to 2028. However, since the second half of 2025, speculation about his future has indeed been heating up:

• July Controversy: Powell was questioned about misleading statements during congressional testimony regarding the cost surge of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project (from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion), with the head of the White House Office of Management and Budget having sent a letter requesting an explanation. At that time, Trump and some Republican lawmakers publicly pressured him, even raising the topic of "resignation," but a Federal Reserve spokesperson clearly reiterated that Powell intends to complete his term.

• Continuous "successor" layout: The Trump administration is indeed actively promoting the selection of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair. Treasury Secretary Basent has begun multiple rounds of interviews since August 2025, and the final shortlist of five candidates was announced on November 26.

1. Chris Waller: Current Federal Reserve Board member, recognized for his forecasting abilities by the Trump team, with the highest profile.

2. Kevin Hassett: Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, closely related to the President.

3. Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve Governor, experienced in handling the 2008 crisis.

4. Michelle Bowman: Current Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, advocates for bank regulatory reform.

5. Rick Rieder: BlackRock's Head of Fixed Income, managing $2.4 trillion in assets.

It is worth noting that all five candidates publicly expressed support for continuing interest rate cuts in December, which is highly consistent with the Trump administration's demand for low interest rates. However, TD Cowen analysts pointed out that they "also place a high value on price stability," and if inflation re-emerges, it may still conflict with Trump's position.

Year-end sensitive window: the dangerous coupling of liquidity tides and information vacuum

Why does the "resignation" rumor have a "credibility illusion" at this point in time? Three overlapping factors:

1. Tightest liquidity window: Late December to early January, with year-end bank settlements, corporate tax payments, and holiday cash demand squeezing the market, leading to a natural thinning of market depth. According to a UBS report, the FOMC meeting in December 2025 faces a data blind spot of "missing two employment reports," amplifying policy uncertainty.

2. Key period for policy decision-making: The market is intensely debating whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding actions in December; if they stick to the original timetable, it means "the committee is willing to make judgments in the absence of complete data." This period of disagreement provides narrative space for rumors.

3. Expectations of personnel changes are off: the candidate selection has entered the "final presidential interview" stage, and Trump has clearly stated that a decision will be made "before the end of the year." Powell may not necessarily resign, but the market needs to price in the "inevitable replacement coming in May 2026" in advance.

Historical Mirror: The Real Impact of Personnel Changes is Often Misinterpreted by the Market

The original text mentions that "Bitcoin plummeted 40% when Powell took over from Yellen in 2018" contains factual inaccuracies—the depth of the cryptocurrency market in 2018 is incomparable to today, and the main reason for the crash at that time was the burst of the ICO bubble and the regulatory storm. What is truly worth referencing is:

• Actual scenario in 2018: After Powell took office in February, there were 4 rate hikes throughout the year, and the market had already priced in the "hawkish chairman" beforehand. The main reason for the sharp decline in the US stock market in December 2018 was the liquidity contraction and trade war, rather than personnel changes themselves.

• Moment of Reappointment in 2022: When Powell received his reappointment nomination in November 2021, the U.S. stock market was at a high; the core of the 2022 crash was the intensification of inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which forced the Federal Reserve to begin an aggressive rate hike cycle. Personnel appointments are the result, not the cause.

Core lesson: The market always overinterprets the "Chairman's personality" while underestimating the decisive force of the "economic cycle." Regardless of who takes over, they will face a complex situation of inflation above target and a cooling labor market, with the policy path driven more by data than by personal preference.

Current Real Market Environment: The Reality Behind the Greed Index

The rise of Bitcoin from $81,000 to $91,000 has indeed occurred, but the essence must be stripped of the influence of rumors:

• The US Dollar Index fell: mainly reflecting the rising expectations of a rate cut in December (CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of over 80% for a rate cut), as well as the safe-haven capital flows triggered by the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy.

• Bitcoin Resilience: More reflects institutional allocation demand (sustained net inflows into spot ETFs) and the strengthening of the "digital gold" narrative under expectations of monetary easing.

• Risk warning: The CNN Greed Index has entered the "Extreme Greed" zone, which is highly similar to the sentiment indicators at the local peaks in November 2021 and March 2024.

The operating framework for ordinary investors: Staying clear-headed in the fog of information

Survival rules during the rumor period:

1. Verify information sources: For any "breaking news," first check the three major sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, and WSJ, while also browsing the Federal Reserve's official website (federalreserve). If there are no authoritative reports within 30 minutes, treat it as a rumor.

2. Position management priority: If the position of crypto assets has exceeded 30% of total assets, regardless of the truth of the news, one should take advantage of the rebound to reduce the position to below 20%. This is not a reaction to the event, but a rational correction to overheating emotions.

3. Use volatility rather than being used by it:

• Crash scenario: If ETH falls below $2,900 due to panic, and BTC falls below $85,000, we can accumulate positions in batches (add once for every 5% drop), targeting candidates who support the certainty of interest rate cuts.

• Surge scenario: If BTC breaks through $95,000, reduce positions to take profits, as the upward momentum under insufficient year-end liquidity is highly fragile.

4. Focus on hard indicators:

• Grayscale GBTC premium rate: Turning positive indicates institutional funds are returning.

• Federal Reserve reverse repo scale: If it falls below $50 billion, it indicates a substantial improvement in liquidity.

• Candidate nomination schedule: If Trump announces the final list around December 25, the market will price in the 2026 policy path in advance.

Conclusion: Information literacy is a core asset that transcends cycles.

Whether Powell has resigned is no longer important; what matters is that this rumor tests three major characteristics of the market:

• The thirst for a policy shift has reached a nearly two-year high.

• Year-end liquidity shortage amplifies price volatility

• Retail FOMO sentiment diverges from institutional rational reallocation.

The real Alpha opportunity does not lie in betting on personnel changes, but in leveraging the volatility window created by information asymmetry. When the market panics or becomes euphoric amidst rumors, the most sustainable profit logic for ordinary investors is to stick to verifying facts, managing risks, and waiting for the trend to restart after data validation. After all, the Federal Reserve may change faces, but the economic laws remain unchanged—hard data like inflation, employment, and growth are the ultimate arbiters of asset prices. #十二月降息预测 #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 #反弹币种推荐 $BTC $ETH