The Federal Reserve has once again released a policy signal that exceeds expectations! Powell's latest statement breaks the market's optimistic expectations for a rate cut in December, clarifying that a rate cut is not a predetermined path and emphasizing that monetary policy will not fall into "autopilot" mode, with no urgent plans for monetary easing in the short term. This shift surpasses Wall Street's general expectations—just a month ago, institutions predicted a probability of over 70% for a rate cut in December, which has now significantly fallen to the range of 22%-41%.

Behind this statement is the dilemma currently faced by the Federal Reserve: persistent inflation resilience continues to significantly constrain policy easing; at the same time, a robust labor market requires decision-makers to remain cautious when adjusting policies. The uncertainty at the policy level has significantly increased, directly triggering severe fluctuations in global financial markets.

From the past performance of the A-share market, the period of policy ambiguity is often an important test of investor determination. Looking back at last year's Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, investors who blindly followed the trend and made irrational bets mostly ended up with losses. Given the current situation, it is highly probable that the high financing cost pattern will continue into the first half of next year, and investors need to maintain rational judgment and respond cautiously to market volatility risks.