When the Fed's probability of a rate cut in December soared to 87%, the financial markets kicked off a frenzy as expected. The three major U.S. stock indexes hit new interim highs, gold steadily climbed thanks to its dual attributes of being a safe haven and anti-inflation, and silver achieved excess gains driven by expectations of industrial demand recovery. However, in this widespread bullish trend, the crypto market moved against the tide, and this bizarre differentiation pattern inevitably raises doubts: Is the bear market really coming as indicated by technical indicators like moving averages and candlesticks?

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The answer may not be so simple. The meeting held by the People's Bank of China on November 28 to combat virtual currency trading speculation is the key to unraveling this market puzzle. This coordinated mechanism meeting is by no means a simple reiteration of policy, but rather a strong regulatory signal released at a sensitive point of market sentiment. The uniqueness of the crypto market lies in its global circulation property and the fragmentation of regulatory policies in various countries, creating a natural contradiction, while China has always maintained a high-pressure regulatory stance against virtual currency trading speculation. This meeting is likely to strengthen the control over key links such as trading intermediaries, capital flows, and technical services, directly hitting the liquidity pain points of the crypto market. Unlike the U.S. stock market relying on corporate profits and precious metals depending on physical demand, the cryptocurrency market is highly dependent on capital consensus. The tightening of regulatory policies often triggers panic withdrawals of short-term funds, which is also the core reason for its counter-trend decline in a favorable macro environment.

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The so-called "cyclical turning point" of technical analysts is difficult to explain the current divergence between the crypto market and traditional risk assets—if we are truly at the starting point of a Bear Market, why are U.S. stocks continuing to rise? In terms of annual performance, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen by more than 90% this year, far exceeding the performance of U.S. stocks. This long-term upward trend will not be reversed by a single day's decline. More importantly, there are no signs of large-scale capital withdrawal by institutions during this drop, and the market capitalization of stablecoins remains high, indicating that long-term capital in the market has not been shaken. The short-term volatility is more of an emotional sell-off triggered by regulatory news. Rather than indulging in the "Bear Market predictions" of technical indicators, it is better to rationally examine the policy environment of the crypto market and one's own risk tolerance—against the backdrop of increasingly clear regulations, the crypto market is gradually bidding farewell to savage growth, and only those assets that truly possess technological value and application scenarios can achieve long-term appreciation amidst volatility.