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The ghost of the altcoin season: why is capital still kept indoors?
After the $20B+ massacre on 10/10, the market breathes a sigh of relief. BTC and ETH stabilize at 105-107k and 3.7k respectively, but there is one detail that doesn't add up: altcoins briefly surge and then deflate.
Wintermute's analysis makes it clear: the recovery is selective, not massive. This week DePIN gained (+22%), L2s (+13%), Mid caps (+15%), AI (+9.6%) and DeFi (+8.8%), but broad participation remains weak. It's like watching fireworks in an empty stadium.
What is happening?
The macro data is on our side: rates are falling, the end of QT, central banks are loosening their wallets. But here comes the important part: big capital has not returned yet. Those who are entering are sophisticated investors taking advantage of nickels—FIL, AR, ICP, FET are leading a rally that smells like a temporary pump.
Meanwhile, altcoins like HYPE, ENA, and UNI remain strong due to real catalysts, not by FOMO.
The inconvenient truth
Historically, the altcoin season explodes when BTC hits new ATHs. Today BTC remains 16% below the peak. Without that price catalyst, broad capital is not encouraged to jump ship.
The conclusion: sentiment is improving, micro data is positive, but the main accelerator is missing. Altcoins can yield good returns if you have a pulse on the market, but the real massive rally awaits BTC near ATH. Meanwhile, the weak breadth is a warning that this is not yet the real party.