2026 will be a year of weak gains for stocks, according to BofA.

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: 2026 will be a year of weak gains for stocks, according to BofA Original Link: According to analysts from Bank of America (BofA), the year 2026 will not be particularly favorable for assets in the U.S. stock market. Experts from the institution anticipate that earnings will be particularly limited for stocks, a forecast that aligns with the delicate economic scenario facing the United States.

According to recent reports, the team led by Savita Subramanian projects a lackluster performance. In that vein, the benchmark S&P 500 would close the year without exceeding 7,100 points in 2026 ( approximately 5%). This represents an extremely low yield, considering it is currently around 6,812 points.

The specialist explains that in 2025 there is a recorded increase of 15% due to combined factors such as multiple expansions and corporate earnings growth. However, 2026 would be driven exclusively by the increase in profits, estimated at around 14%, but insufficient to offset a contraction of 10% in the price-to-earnings multiples of the index.

Meanwhile, in a bearish scenario, the report indicates that the S&P 500 could retreat to as low as 5,500 points. This would represent a drop of nearly 20% from current levels, implying a technical bear market. In summary, even in the best-case scenario, BofA believes that investors should prepare for a moderate return environment.

Stocks prepare for a complex year, according to BofA

It is important to emphasize that a 20% drop in the benchmark index would only be likely in the context of an economic recession. For now, there are few indicators suggesting an imminent collapse. In fact, 2026 could mark the beginning of a monetary easing cycle if the trend of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continues.

This approach generates expectations of potential solid gains, something that contradicts, at least superficially, the warnings from BofA. In an optimistic scenario, the S&P 500 could even surpass 8,500 points, according to Subramanian, which would imply a 25% increase from current levels.

This case, although considered unlikely by the analysis, would be in line with the nearly 20% performance shown by the index in 2023 and 2024. It is worth remembering that, over the last decade, the S&P 500 averaged annual gains of 12%. Therefore, 2026 presents itself as a year marked by uncertainty, with the Fed's monetary policy as a determining variable.

In the cryptocurrency market, the landscape could be even more volatile. A widespread weakness in financial markets would increase the pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In that context, capital could withdraw quickly, leading to a pronounced bear market, in line with the historical four-year cycles of Bitcoin's price.

Even so, the worst-case scenario is not widely considered likely at the moment.