#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) and inflation data (CPI/PCE) for December will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or if inflation rebounds, the probability of interest rate cuts may quickly decline, triggering market volatility.

• The Federal Reserve's official guidance: Aside from whether to cut interest rates, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' forecasts for interest rates in 2026, which will affect the market's assessment of the long-term easing cycle, and its importance is no less than that of a single interest rate cut.

• Internal factors of the cryptocurrency market: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin spot ETF has introduced new variables, but the huge trading volume coincides with the selling behavior of "whale" addresses, leading to the risk of liquidation for high-leverage positions. This serves as a reminder for investors to pay attention to the structural risks within the cryptocurrency market.