Spot: $BTC/USDT

Entry price: 90900
Target price:

- TP1: 89500
- TP2: 88400
- TP3: 85800
Stop loss price: above 92700

Reason for selling:

1. Pattern Confirmation:
- The daily level has formed a "double top" reversal structure (neckline at 89500), with a top depth of 3200 (89500-92700)
- Measure of decline = Top depth × 1.618 = 5178 → Target price 3 = 92700 - 5178 = 87522 (actual rounding to integer 85800)
2. Trend Structure:
- The weekly level breaks below the 2024 upward trend line (connecting 85800 to 88400), price falls below MA(50) 91200.
- RSI(14)=32 (Weak Area), MACD death cross followed by expanding green bars, clear signal of bearish dominance.
3. Breakthrough Potential:
- After falling below 89500, a downward space of 85800 opens up.
- If an effective breakthrough occurs, it may trigger the liquidation of 3.0x leveraged contracts.
4. Indicator Verification:
- The OBV indicator has reached a new 20-day low, with funds continuing to flow out.
- Funding rate -0.255% (negative for 7 consecutive days), futures open interest decreased by 38%
- On-chain data: Net inflow of the exchange +220,000, whale holdings decreased by 35%

Strategy Highlights:

- Short at neckline: The entry point at 90900 is near the neckline of the double top structure, with a stop loss at 92700 placed above the formation.
- Volatility Expansion: The Bollinger Bands width has increased to 4.2% (the highest in the past 30 days), with the breakout direction potentially leading to a single-day volatility of 12% or more.
- Time window: Aligning with market expectations before the release of US non-farm payroll data

Key Signal:

- 92700 is the high point for November 2024, forming strong resistance.
- If the trading volume exceeds 200% when it falls below 89500, the downward trend can be confirmed.
- A continuous negative funding rate indicates that short positions are dominant, which could trigger a chain liquidation.

This content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice.